Macron’s first big decision – choosing his Prime Minister. Chris from Paris looks at the betting
On the previous thread Chris from Paris gave his views on who Macron is going to choose as his first Prime Minister. Betffair has just got a market up. These are Chris’s views with the numbers being the Betfair price when he posted.
Pascal Lamy 10.0 : ok price, a bit low: Lamy has a great international profile but pretty unlikely PM as he has never been either a MP or a minister
– Le Drian 7.2 : the price is too low, as Le Drian will keep the Defence ministry if he wants but refuses to leave the socialist party, thus could not lead the En marche campaign for the parliamentary election
– Philippe 4.1 : very good price, as the current rumor in Paris is that he is the favorite. He is a centre-right republicain, was Juppé’s spokesman, is reasonably young (47), a former MP and current Le Havre mayor.
– Idrac 4.4: another good price. Former (low-rank) Chirac and Sarkozy minister, former CEO of the Paris metro and of the French railways. Probably the most experienced and credible female candidate from the Macron camp.
– Bayrou 6.2: the price is too low. He had a key role in the campaign but is hated by most of the right since he supported Hollande in 2012.
– Lagarde 16 : would be the perfect candidate if she had not been convicted for “negligence” regarding a payment to a controversial businessman a few months ago.
– Le Maire 10: ok price. He would clearly like to be chosen but waited Sunday night to offer his services and strongly criticized Macron a few months back.
– Goulard 5.2 : price a bit too low. She will enter the government but probably get the Foreign Affairs. A MEP (and former advisor to Prodi in Brussels) she is Macron’s european affairs specialist. She never had any National parliamentary mandate.
– Borloo 10 : has left politics 3 years ago for “medical reasons” (liquid lunches mostly). He is popular but joined Macron very late and is considered unreliable.
– Ferrand 5 : the price is too low The ultimate insider of the campaign but almost totally unknown by the general public.
– Collomb 10 : I don’t see it. He is the Lyon mayor and first fan of Macron but he seems too old (70).
– Barbaroux 20 Schiappa 25 Griveau 25: Who?
– Royal 21 : hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
– Malek Boutih 20 : The price seems right. The choice of this son of Algerian parents who grew up in a shanty town would be a stunning development. But he is quite controversial due to his strong denunciation of any complacency towards radical islam.
– Valls 34 / Sapin 25 / Touraine 25 / Taubira 25 Cazeneuve 25 : I don’t think that Macron is suicidal enough to choose a pillar of the Hollande team
– Kosciusko-Morizet 50 : She ticks many boxes (woman, 43, very centrist and “modern” image, former Mp and Minister) but has publicly declined the openings from the Macron camp.
In summary my favorites are Philippe and Idrac and I backed both
Thanks Chris. This should all be resolved in the next few days.
My view is that Macron is young and will go for someone from his generation.