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Month: April 2017

Marine Le Pen’s best chance of becoming President of France is if she faces Fillon in the 2nd round

Marine Le Pen’s best chance of becoming President of France is if she faces Fillon in the 2nd round

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Head to head: Fillon-LePen Head to head: Melenchon-LePen Head to head: Macron-LePen Today the people of France are going to the polls in the first round of the Presidential Election. The polling stations close at 1900 BST and we should get the first exit polls shortly afterwards. If the exit polling is close then we might see some delay before any figures are published. Unlike the UK where there is one single exit poll in France several media outlets have…

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Why a 1997 style landslide or even a 1983 style landslide might not happen, but maybe a 2005 style majority of 66 could

Why a 1997 style landslide or even a 1983 style landslide might not happen, but maybe a 2005 style majority of 66 could

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Judging by the polls, the political mood, the intuition of most political watchers, and pretty much everyone in the country, sans the Corbynites, are expecting Mrs May’s Tories to win so comprehensively the only thing in doubt is which three figure number will be the size of the Tory majority, but today I’ll explain why that might be wrong, and why Mrs May could end up with just a modest double digit majority. But here are the reasons why I…

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Labour reduce the Tory lead to 23% with YouGov in the most incredible polling night I can ever remember

Labour reduce the Tory lead to 23% with YouGov in the most incredible polling night I can ever remember

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  New ComRes poll for Sunday Mirror: HIGHEST TORY VOTE SHARE SINCE JAN 1991 Con 50(+4) Lab 25(-) LD 11(-) UKIP 7(-2) — Andrew Hawkins (@PigsAndPolling) April 22, 2017 ComRes for Sunday Mirror: T May has higher best PM rating than Corbyn, Farron & Nuttall combined — Andrew Hawkins (@PigsAndPolling) April 22, 2017 If this poll is as wrong in the other direction as the polls in 2015, 1992 and 1970 *put together*, Tories still have more seats than Labour…

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Opinium sees the Tory lead up 10% in a week to 19%. Labour are on course for an absolute hammering if the polls are right

Opinium sees the Tory lead up 10% in a week to 19%. Labour are on course for an absolute hammering if the polls are right

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New @OpiniumResearch Con 45 (+7) Lab 26 (-3) LD 11 (+4) UKIP 9 (-5) Changes since last week. FW 19/20 Aprilhttps://t.co/JDBaJ9a0K2 — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 22, 2017 Since Theresa May announced the general election, we’ve had three polls, with leads of 21%, 24%, and now 19% for the blues. The trend is not Labour’s friend. We might need to come up with a new adjective for  just how rubbish Corbyn is. This poll presages an absolute shellacking for Labour. If…

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The French ban on opinion polls came into effect at midnight with Macron still ahead

The French ban on opinion polls came into effect at midnight with Macron still ahead

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Will that hold good when real voting starts tomorrow morning? France has some very tight laws on opinion polls including a complete ban on then being published on the day before an election. So the Wikipedia chart above represents all the polling that we will see until we get the exit polls tomorrow evening. The young independent, Emmanuel Macron, is still in the lead and has seen it move up just a touch in the final few days. Le Pen…

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Being realistic on the prospects for Lib Dem gains

Being realistic on the prospects for Lib Dem gains

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Alastair Meeks takes a hard look The Lib Dems’ emblem is the liberty bird.  In 2015, it was put on the critically endangered list, found only in eight locations where volunteers toiled night and day to protect it from poachers.  Pundits, including me, gloomily pondered whether extinction was on the cards. It’s a compelling case study how climate change is not necessarily bad for everyone.  In the wake of Brexit, the Lib Dems have found a new purpose as the…

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Now the Electoral Commission orders an investigation into LeaveEU’s referendum finances

Now the Electoral Commission orders an investigation into LeaveEU’s referendum finances

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Independent The Indy is reporting that the Electoral Commission is to launch an investigation into the finances of Leave.EU. “The Electoral Commission has launched an investigation into spending at the European Union referendum by the campaign group Leave.EU, it has announced. The Commission says the investigation will focus on whether the Brexit-supporting campaign took “impermissible” donations and said there were “reasonable grounds to suspect that potential offences” may have been committed by the campaign. A spokesperson for the Commission said:…

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Gloomy local by-election news for LAB in the week a General Election was called

Gloomy local by-election news for LAB in the week a General Election was called

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Blacon on Chester West and Chester (Lab defence, resignation of sitting member) Result: Labour 1,556 (59% +1%), Conservative 574 (22% +4%), Independent 434 (16%, no candidate at last election), Liberal Democrat 70 (3%, no candidate at last election) Labour HOLD with a majority of 982 (37%) on a swing of 1.5% from Lab to Con (notional swing of 1% from Lab to Lib Dem, 0.5% from Lib Dem to Con) Kenton East on Harrow (Lab defence, death of sitting member)…

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