First wave of French second round polling gives it to Macron by 20% or more
Betting on last Sunday’s winner looks like free money
After Sunday’s first round of voting in France all eyes are now on the second round that takes place on Sunday May 7th.
Hypothetical matchups before Sunday had shown that Macron would have a big lead. The first post 2nd round polls, the ones featured above, still have him with a big margin but nothing like on the scale of what we were seeing before Sunday. This reflects the very large number of don’t knows at this stage particularly from voters for contenders that failed to make the cut.
In the past 24 hours on Betfair nearly £1m has been matched on the French election and Macron has now edged to being an 87% chance. Given his election in the second round is almost a certainty this really is free money if you’re ready to tie up the cash for less than 2 weeks. He should be a lot tighter than his current 1.14 Betfair price.
It really is difficult to see a pathway for Marine Le Pen though large numbers of voters have yet to make up their minds. The polls were remarkably accurate on the first round and it is hard to see that not continuing in the second
The second round of voting takes place on the Sunday after this year’s local elections in the UK which happen a week on Thursday.