If Macron makes it to the final two then surely he’s the next President of France
Latest Macron-Le Pen polling
Latest Macron-Fillon polling
Latest Macron-Melenchon polling
The above tables from the excellent Wikipedia round up of French polls tell a consistent story – whoever of those closest on the first round ends up fighting Macron then the young independent looks set to be the winner.
Melenchon is the only one of the serious contenders who consistently gets into the 40s in hypothetical match-ups against Macron. Fillon fares worst with Le Pen in the middle.
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The big question is whether Macron’s performance in the first round on Sunday can match his polling.
Because he does not come from one of the traditional parties he cannot rely on a well-honed party machine to get the vote out – something that could be crucial.
Last time the turnout levels were very similar in both rounds.
Macron is still the favourite but he’s no longer the 65%+ chance that he was a month ago.