A look at the Mayoral elections betting

‘The young princes who now stride the parade ground with the confidence born of aristocratic schooling can never be afraid. They never have been. Like latter day Pushkins drilled in the elite academy of Brownian blitzkrieg, they are bursting with their sense of destiny.’ 

Is part of a text that will be studied throughout history as one of the great polemics of our era. Anyway, not withstanding there are a couple of mayoral by-elections coming up. One in Greater Manchester and the other in the West Midlands.

Andy Burnham is the candidate for the Greater Manchester seat, and is generally a 1-5 shot. The other very interesting mayoralty is “West Midlands”. Now note the two pie charts for the 2015

Combined Westminster vote in each seat:

As much as the Lib Dems have done excellently in by-elections recently, either seat looks a ‘big ask’ in football parlance. And with UKIP’s failure to do anything in “Capital of Brexit” Stoke, I certainly can’t advise them in either seat at any price.

However the 1-5 shot (Andy Burnham/Greater Manchester) is on the left, and Sion Simon (6-4 shot) is on the right.

Now if there is a Copeland size swing, then the Conservatives will almost certainly win the West Midlands – but the West Midlands combined authority area is much more urban, and more favourable ground for Labour, even in their current sickly state.

In addition, and this is by far the biggest factor – Sion Simon can make this campaign about himself, and the wider Labour brand rather than Corbyn; who is electoral toxicity personified. Simon’s opponents will be trying to make this about Corbyn at every turn I am sure though.

Electoral Calculus projects at the next GE that the Tories will take the West Midlands in terms of votes in 2020 (37.5% to 36.4%), whilst Labour holds Greater Manchester by 40.3% to 30.7%. So don’t go wagering your life savings on Sion, but it is worth a tickle.

Andy should win Greater Manchester, though I can’t advise it at 1-5.

As a further, and final aside I’d expect the Conservatives to outperform their aggregate performance here in 2020 where Corbyn (If he remains leader) will definitely be at the forefront of the almost certainly doomed Labour campaign. A win for Sion Simon here doesn’t necessarily mean Labour are out of the woods in the West Midlands, though.

Full disclosure : I am on £28.50 to win £50 @ 7-4 (Sion Simon)

Pulpstar

Pulpstar is a long standing gambler and contributor to PB

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