Embed from Getty Images Anyone who has been dumped will know the problem: what do you do next? Bridget Jones was faced with exactly this dilemma. She saw that she had two choices: to give up and accept permanent state of spinsterhood and eventual eating by Alsatians, or not. The rest of the European Union has just been dumped by Britain. It faces much the same dilemma as Bridget Jones faced. And like Bridget Jones, it is choosing not. Bridget…
Paddy Power have a market up on will Donald Trump accept the result of Presidential election, the exact wording of the bet is ‘Donald Trump to publicly confirm he accepts the result of the poll at the post election rally.’ Given his comments from earlier on this week, the only way I can see Trump accepting the result of the election is if he wins it, so you’d be better off betting on him winning the White House Race where…
50% of June 23rd REMAIN voters say they’d back such a new party Between Tuesday 11th and Friday 14th October 2016, YouGov surveyed 4,507 adults in England and Wales. Respondents were asked two questions. First, they were asked how they would vote in a general election, and were given as possible response options the standard list of parties YouGov uses for such questions. A second question was then asked including a STOP BREXIT party in the list. The actual wording…
They’re another party that has returned to comfort-zone politics They have learned nothing and forgotten nothing. So Talleyrand said of the Bourbons and so much the same might be said of the Lib Dems today. If there’s one thing that we should take from the Witney by-election campaigns, it was the extent to which 2010-15 are now for the Lib Dems non-years. With the disagreeable business of actually holding power and being able to do something with it now behind…
The standard poll with UKIP included Westminster voting intention for Election Data /YouGov CON 42%LAB 26%LD 8%UKIP 12%GRN 5%F/W 19-20th Oct — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 21, 2016 How same sample responded when UKIP excluded Westminster voting intention for Election Data /YouGov with UKIP removedCON 47% (+5)LAB 28% (+2)LD 10% (+2)GRN 5% =F/W 19-20th Oct — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 21, 2016
Witney result:CON: 45.1% (-15.1)LDEM: 30.2% (+23.5)LAB: 15.0% (-2.2)GRN: 3.5% (-1.5)UKIP: 3.5% (-5.6) — Britain Elects (@britainelects) October 21, 2016 GRN & UKIP lose deposits with the purples coming 5th In the end the Witney by-election ended up very much as predicted. The numbers above are pretty close to what Shadsy of Ladbrokes had projected in the Tweet I’d highlighted in the previous thread. For a party with double digit leads in all the national polls the Tory vote drop in…
A crossroads for all parties This was a by-election that appeared so boring when Cameron stepped down as an MP that Shadsy of Ladbroke opened the betting with the Tories at 1/500. This meant a £1,000 winning bet would have produced a profit of just £2. So anything other than a Tory win by a clear margin must still be the likely outcome. The LDs, who’ve been doing exceptionally well in local council elections of late, have thrown everything into…