If the courts remove Corbyn from the ballot then LAB would have lost an electoral liability but gained £4.5m
Next Wednesday a court will hear a case brought by a major LAB donor that the NEC was wrong to have allowed Corbyn to be on the ballot without securing the support of 51 MPs and MEPs.
I’ve no idea about the chances of the case succeeding but Michael Crick has reported that there is some concern within the party about the case.
If this does go forward it would be absolutely mega and it is hard to see what would happen next. No doubt there would be appeals to higher courts and this could prolong the already elongated electoral run-up.
Would Owen Smith as the last man standing be given the job or would it be opened up again. Nobody knows with the modern LAB party.
And what about those who’ve forked out. £25 in order to get the chance of voting? No doubt the hard-pressed party will keep it.
Meanwhile there was a flurry of betting activity after a Tweet from a respected source suggested that the £25 supporters were splitting against Corbyn. He later reversed this saying the incumbent was getting 60/40.
The mere fact of the court case and the uncertainty it creates suggests that Corbyn at a betting chance of 76%+ is value
Whatever a lot is going to happen in the next 8 weeks.