2019 looks like the year for the UK exit from the EU

William Hill have a market up on when the UK will actually leave the EU. This is one of those horrible for punters markets where the bookie has probably priced it right.

My reasoning is that whomever the Tories elect as leader and thus Prime Minister will not want to go into the 2020 general election whilst we were still in the EU as that would be the ideal way to ensure UKIP wins the 2020 general election.

Triggering Article 50 starts a two year process, and triggering it in late 2017 makes sense, there’s elections in France and Germany in 2017 which will determine who the President and Chancellor of France and Germany are, there’s no point in starting a process when one or both of them might be replaced mid negotiations, given the influence and importance of France and Germany in the EU.

So 2019 looks priced right as if Article 50 isn’t triggered by 2017 there’s going to be so much pressure on the incumbent of Number 10 Downing Street to trigger it, almost to the point she would be toppled if she hadn’t triggered Article 50.

TSE