Ipsos Mori phone poll sees a 10% swing to Leave as Leave take a 6% lead – Update Survation sees Leave take the lead

Ipsos Mori phone poll sees a 10% swing to Leave as Leave take a 6% lead – Update Survation sees Leave take the lead

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The plethora of (significant) Leave leads are at variance with Betfair.

David Cameron is finding EU Can’t Always Get What You Want. He must be feeling like Gonville Bromhead, as he’s told the pollsters report Brextieers….millions of them. What this poll finds is that the focus on immigration and Turkey is working for Leave whilst the Remain attack lines on the economy aren’t working.

The are  some comforts Remain can find is they are only 2% ahead with all voters, as the 6% lead for Leave is for the certain to vote voters. When you factor in Northern Ireland, Gibraltar, and expats, an expected swing back to the status quo and that Ipsos Mori finds 20% of voters might still change their mind but that’s more like the Black Knight saying this poll is just a flesh wound.

Whilst there have been some methodology changes, they aren’t behind a 10% swing in a month, after large swings with the other phone pollsters to Leave, this doesn’t feel like an outlier.

During the Indyref campaign there were only two polls that put Yes ahead. In the EURef campaign Leave have had 7 leads in the past week, just what will shift Betfair to make Leave the favourites?  My own view, whilst Remain are the favourites, the value is still there in backing Leave. 

In nine days time it seems quite likely that David Cameron will be announcing his resignation, whilst First Minister Nicola Sturgeon contemplates calling a second independence referendum.  We’re due a Survation phone poll at midday, if it brings that similar news then I’m not sure what Remain can do, as we saw in Scotland at the last general election, once we see rapid changes in public sentiment, there’s not a lot the status quo can do to repel it.

TSE

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