Latest @YouGov poll suggests the potential for a caTAFFstrophe for Remain in Wales https://t.co/HQUHUNKFTw pic.twitter.com/aivZvkc5EM

— TSE (@TSEofPB) June 7, 2016

Taking the 2/1 on Wales voting to Leave seems like the value option

This morning there was an EU Referendum poll of Wales by YouGov, they found

The two sides of the debate over the UK’s future in the EU are “dead level” in Wales,  political expert Roger Scully has said.

Remain and Leave are both on 41%, with 18% don’t know or won’t vote, according to the latest YouGov survey for ITV Wales and Cardiff University.

YouGov polls on the issue since 2013 have shown very close results.

Professor Roger Scully said the race was tight as many Labour and Plaid Cymru voters did not agree with the pro-EU views of their party leaders.

Ladbrokes have Wales voting for Leave at 2/1, I’m going to have a small nibble on the 2/1, because if it is neck and neck, that’s where the value is in my opinion. My only caveats are that YouGov overstated UKIP by 3% and 3.5% in their final Welsh Assembly poll, whilst generally getting most other things right, I’m also expecting some swingback to Remain the closer we get to June 23rd, but given the issues with the Port Talbot steelworks, you can see why Wales might vote to Leave the EU.

TSE