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Month: April 2016

The challenge for Trump gets harder after doing worse than all the polls in Wisconsin

The challenge for Trump gets harder after doing worse than all the polls in Wisconsin

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Real Clear Politics Trump drops further in nomination betting after his failure in Wisconsin by a bigger margin than the polls predicted pic.twitter.com/DxIJ7Ec2U8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 6, 2016 And another loss for Hillary In spite of a late poll showing him 10% in the lead Donald Trump was soundly beaten by Ted Cruz in the Wisconsin primary. All the delegates bar three go to Cruz. In the Democratic race Sanders chalked up another victory though because the party…

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Latest from the key political betting markets

Latest from the key political betting markets

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The Republican nomination The June 23rd EU Referendum Winner London Mayoral Election May 2016 These odds are live but you can find out historical position by taking your cursor across the charts. After today’s ComRes 10% Khan lead in London it is not wonder that the Labour man is an 85% shot but I do wonder whether the Lynton Crosby Tory campaign might have some aces up their sleeves for the final month. The referendum betting has surprised me. I’d…

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Rallings & Thrasher: LAB set to lose 150 seats in the May 5th locals

Rallings & Thrasher: LAB set to lose 150 seats in the May 5th locals

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Prof Colin Rallings with his 2016 local elections prediction pic.twitter.com/Pl6W0871Bn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 5, 2016 Rallings & Thrasher National Equivalent Vote share for May elections CON 33LAB 30LD 16UKIP 12 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 5, 2016 Today it’s been the annual local elections briefing hosted by the Political Studies Association. As per usual Profs Rallings and Thrasher announced their predictions based on party performances in local by elections which take place almost every week. They have a…

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Forget Paul Ryan, it’s Cruz or bust for the NeverTrump campaign

Forget Paul Ryan, it’s Cruz or bust for the NeverTrump campaign

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As Wisconsin goes to the polls, it’s Ted Cruz (and not Paul Ryan) that the GOP must unite behind if they want to stop Donald Trump says Keiran Pedley It’s fair to say that Wisconsin occupies something of an odd place on the GOP primary calendar in 2016. If it feels like a long time since Republican voters have been to the polls that’s because it has been. By the time that Wisconsin votes this week, it will have been…

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After tomorrow’s Wisconsin primary we could be looking at House Speaker, Paul Ryan, very differently

After tomorrow’s Wisconsin primary we could be looking at House Speaker, Paul Ryan, very differently

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From Politico on Paul Ryanhttps://t.co/gin0uviXsg pic.twitter.com/K0O8T76VvX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 4, 2016 Paul Ryan setting himself up for nomination? Via @nowthisnewsHe admits he was wrong about people living in povertyhttps://t.co/VfLtBmCVZJ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 4, 2016

Ups and downs. The referendum’s impact on individual politicians

Ups and downs. The referendum’s impact on individual politicians

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The nation’s politicians are consumed by the referendum debate. 23 June is seen as a momentous day. But politics will not stop on 24 June. Who has the campaign benefited so far? And, just as interestingly, who is on the wane? A Good Campaign Jeremy Corbyn. Simply by doing not very much, he has found that the heat has come off him to a large extent.  The public is being reminded that Labour is not the only divided party and…

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Nicky Morgan’s academy plan could boost her leadership hopes – or kill them stone dead

Nicky Morgan’s academy plan could boost her leadership hopes – or kill them stone dead

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Donald Brind on the Ed Sec’s big gamble Nicky Morgan reckons she has what it takes to be Tory leader. She put her name on the board last October and followed it up with a declaration in February that it would be “a big mistake if Tory members were offered a choice between “two white men”, when David Cameron steps down. Her dream is in desperate need of a boost. In last month’s Conservative Home survey of leadership contenders she…

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The disintegrating establishment

The disintegrating establishment

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In 2010, Britain was being wrestled over by two parties competing to portray themselves to the public as the natural party of government.  In his first conference speech, David Cameron returned repeatedly to the theme of “substance”.  He told his party: “Real substance is about taking time to think things through, not trotting out easy answers that people might want to hear.  It’s about sticking to your guns.  It’s about character, judgement, and consistency.  It’s about policy, yes.  But it’s…

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