Will Trump rise to the occasion?

Betting on the Republican nominee and related markets has been a mix of the interesting, surreal and downright bizarre. The betting overreaction to Marco Rubio finishing third in Iowa and becoming the favourite for the nomination was a particular highlight and profitable for many.

But the GOP nomination contest has been marked by a certain viciousness between the candidates, with Donald Trump giving Ted Cruz the epithet Lyin’ Ted Cruz, whilst the cherry on the parfait was Marco Rubio’s very innuendo laden comment about the smallness of Trump’s hands, and what that implies, hence the Paddy Power market above.

Talking of Trump being a flop, this time last week on Betfair, Trump was implied as having a 70% chance of being the Republican nominee, he’s flopped since then and now has just over a 51% chance of being the nominee according to punters.  I think this Trump flop is because punters think we’re headed for a brokered convention.

If we are headed for a brokered convention, I expect the attacks by the contenders to be even more vicious and personal than we’ve seen already, especially if Trump sees an establishment attempt to stop him being the nominee despite him comfortably winning the plurality of delegates.

With reports that ‘If Trump fails to clinch 1,237 delegates outright, already more than a hundred are poised to break from him on a second ballot’ you can see why Trump has abandoned a pledge to support whomever is the GOP nominee, something that might cost him further delegates.

As for the market on Trump’s manhood, this is a market I’m not betting on, I’d rather earn the interest than let Paddy Power earn the interest as I expect the bets will be voided. Though I suspect the value in this market, is towards the smaller end of this market.

If you want to place a bet on the White House race, it might be wiser to bet on the Democratic Party nominee winning in November, as a bitter and messy brokered GOP convention surely helps the GOP’s opponents.

TSE