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Month: April 2016

Opinum has EURef outcome for maximum chaos: England & Wales vote OUT but Scotland means it’s overall for IN

Opinum has EURef outcome for maximum chaos: England & Wales vote OUT but Scotland means it’s overall for IN

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Opinium #EURef poll national splits ENGLAND 41% to 43% to OUT WALES 35% to 42% to OUT SCOTLAND 51% to 34% IN OVERALL 42% to 41% to IN Tonight’s Opinium poll has a projected outcome which, if it happened, would create the most massive post-June 23rd eruptions – a narrow IN win but with England and Wales voting OUT. The national region splits are above. How wonderful for political anoraks to have such an outcome. We must remember Northern Ireland…

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Focus on Scotland in a PB/Polling Matters TV show special

Focus on Scotland in a PB/Polling Matters TV show special

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Thursday’s Holyrood elections, Labour struggles, Brexit and the possibility of Indyref2 Keiran Pedley is joined in the studio by Kate Devlin from the Herald and Craig McAngus of the University of Aberdeen. They discuss the upcoming Scottish Parliament elections and why the SNP is so popular, why Labour is struggling, the upcoming EU referendum and prospects for a second independence referendum. The audio podcast version Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Livingstone: symptom of a deeper problem

Livingstone: symptom of a deeper problem

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Confronting the ex-mayor means confronting what it means to be Labour You know you have a PR problem when your party’s second most successful politician this century* is publicly debating at what point in the 1930s Hitler lost the plot. Labour’s problem runs a great deal deeper than bad publicity though. To be clear, Labour is unlikely to be the only party with members, activists or elected representatives who’ve said or written something stupid or worse but it is likely…

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Why Indiana next Tuesday is so crucial for both Trump and Cruz

Why Indiana next Tuesday is so crucial for both Trump and Cruz

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James Burt (TheWhiteRabbit) looks at the battle Following Trump’s crushing victory in five north-eastern states on Tuesday, attention has now turned to next week’s GOP primary in Indiana. Indiana could prove a critical state on the route to Trump securing the nomination. There are ten states left to go to the polls, but four are ‘winner take all’ states where the result is foregone. Another three allocate their delegates proportionally, which means the difference between good and bad performances is…

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Donald Brind says that if Ken is expelled it will be a Labour gain

Donald Brind says that if Ken is expelled it will be a Labour gain

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Those who care about the Palestinians have to be careful how they attack Israel Let me say at the start that I deplore the government of Benjamin Netanyahu which I believe uses overwhelming military power to make life misery for people in neighbouring territories. When the occupied people react violently to the oppression the response ordered by Netanyahu is, I’d argue, routinely disproportionate. My rather strangulated prose is to illustrate a point. If you believe in justice for the Palestinians…

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Sadiq Khan 20% ahead of Goldsmith according to Survation phone poll

Sadiq Khan 20% ahead of Goldsmith according to Survation phone poll

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New Survation London Mayoral poll has Khan 15% ahead Khan 49%Zac 34%UKIP 5%LD 3%GRN 3% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 28, 2016 Survation Mayoral poll after allocating 2nd prefsKhan 60%Zac 40% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 28, 2016 Survation Mayoral poll was by phone & carried out from Apr 21 to 25 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 28, 2016 So on the face of it a great poll for Sadiq Khan, Labour, Corbyn and those PBers who got on the…

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Choosing Cameron’s successor – the process and the possibles

Choosing Cameron’s successor – the process and the possibles

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Alastair Meeks thinks they’ll select in completely the wrong way Epigone is an underused word.  Originating from the ancient Greek for “offspring”, it means “undistinguished successor”, referring to the sons of the Seven Against Thebes who sought to avenge their fathers. Politics is littered with epigoni.  Margaret Thatcher was followed by John Major, who had imbibed the economics but lacked the lustre.  John Major was followed by William Hague, who lacked not just the lustre but also the gravitas.  William…

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It’s not just LAB that has an anti semitic problem

It’s not just LAB that has an anti semitic problem

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Jan 2015 “Jews have too much influence in this country”Agree: UKIP voters 18%; Labour voters 10%; Tory voters 9%.https://t.co/5XSPrK1Q2H — Tim Bale (@ProfTimBale) April 28, 2016 On a day dominated by the extraordinary events within Labour and the suspension of the former Mayor of London, Ken Livingston, Prof Tim Bale has Tweeted about some 2015 polling. As can be seen those sampled were asked whether they thought that “Jews have too much influence on this country”. 18% of Ukip voters…

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