Browsed by
Month: March 2016

Why a brokered convention won’t stop Trump

Why a brokered convention won’t stop Trump

Comments 0 Comment

The Republican nomination It is now Trump v Cruz. Lay anyone else. Let’s talk brokered conventions, always a topic to set the pulses of political anoraks racing. We can deal with the Democrats briefly. Bernie might take Hillary all the way to the convention but if he does, he’ll lose just as she did against Obama eight years ago. It’s quite possible that Sanders will deny Clinton the victories she needs to assure herself of the nomination without superdelegates but…

Read More Read More

Date for your diary: Next PB Gathering Friday April 8th + the local by-election results

Date for your diary: Next PB Gathering Friday April 8th + the local by-election results

Comments 0 Comment

We’ve got a lot to catch up on Just to confirm – the next PB gathering takes place at the Shooting Star on Friday April 8th from about 1830. We’ve returned to a Friday evening slot following requests from a number of people who say that will be more convenient. It will be the third time we have used the pub, the Shooting Star, which is very close to Liverpool Street station. Thanks again to the slim-line Fat Steve for…

Read More Read More

Polling analysis: UKIP supporters make up the biggest group of those wanting OUT, LAB ones of those wanting to stay

Polling analysis: UKIP supporters make up the biggest group of those wanting OUT, LAB ones of those wanting to stay

Comments 0 Comment

Tory voters are very much split between the two I don’t think this form of analysis has been done so far in the campaign – where are the supporters of either side coming from. What surprised me was that the Tory general election support is almost totally split between the two sides and is not the dominant segment in either. Turnout is clearly going to be important and whether the Tory vote remain broadly split will stay as it is…

Read More Read More

Missing the point. How the Remain campaign is failing

Missing the point. How the Remain campaign is failing

Comments 0 Comment

Alastair Meeks on the Remain campaign With roughly 100 days to go to the referendum, the Remain campaign is no doubt feeling cautiously optimistic.  While the renegotiation of terms has not inspired, Remain has had a much better air war than Leave to date.  David Cameron has vigorously warned of the manifold dangers that he has identified if Britain should leave the EU.  A stately procession of the great and the good is being lined up to walk past us,…

Read More Read More

Tonight’s local by-elections – a CON defence in Theresa May’s constituency and a LD one in Tim Farron’s

Tonight’s local by-elections – a CON defence in Theresa May’s constituency and a LD one in Tim Farron’s

Comments 0 Comment

Kendal, Strickland and Fell (Lib Dem defence) on Cumbria Result of council at last election (2013): Labour 35, Conservatives 26, Liberal Democrat 16, Independents 7 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 8) Result of ward at last election (2013): Liberal Democrat 980 (52%), Labour 506 (27%), Conservative 191 (10%), United Kingdom Independence Party 186 (10%), Trade Unionist and Socialist 15 (1%) Candidates duly nominated: Virginia Branney (Lab), Andy Mason (Green), Harry Taylor (Con), Peter Thornton (Lib Dem), David Walker (UKIP)…

Read More Read More

Just out: This week’s Politicalbetting/Polling Matters TV show with guests Alastair Meeks and Shadsy from Ladbrokes

Just out: This week’s Politicalbetting/Polling Matters TV show with guests Alastair Meeks and Shadsy from Ladbrokes

Comments 0 Comment

Edition March 9th 2016: Brexit, Boris and who is going to be CON leader Welcome to the latest pilot where Keiran Pedley and myself welcomed two very familiar figures – Alastair Meeks and Matthew Shaddick of Ladbrokes. There’s so much going on at the moment and so much political betting taking place that is becoming hard to know where to start. This latest edition looks mostly at the UK. All the shows that we’ve done can be found here. Mike…

Read More Read More

Professor Michael Thrasher introduces The Elections Centre

Professor Michael Thrasher introduces The Elections Centre

Comments 0 Comment

Google   When Rallings and Thrasher established the Elections Centre in the early 1980s the principal aim was to collect and publish local election results in the same way that F.W.S. Craig was covering the parliamentary equivalent. In establishing the website, www.electionscentre.co.uk, the aim is to provide easier access for a wide variety of users to the huge amount of data compiled over the intervening years. Many readers of Political Betting will already be acquainted with the site but a glimpse of future plans can…

Read More Read More