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Month: March 2016

You’ve seen the latest London Mayoral poll – now predict the election in the PB Prize Competition

You’ve seen the latest London Mayoral poll – now predict the election in the PB Prize Competition

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Although it has been hugely overshadowed by the EURef the London Mayoral election on May 5th is proving to be an interesting battle. Thanks to Mark Hopkins and his NoJam widget we’ve prepared another PB Prize competition. Simple predict the first round shares for the main parties and the overall winner. Remember that the election gives voters two choices. A first choice and what is effectively a second one which only comes into play if their first choice is not…

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YouGov London Mayoral poll has Sadiq with 7% lead

YouGov London Mayoral poll has Sadiq with 7% lead

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New YouGov London Mayoral poll had Sadiq Khan maintaining 7% lead pic.twitter.com/XBx4DwFphO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 14, 2016 Excluding the don't knows the YouGov London Mayoral polls hasSadiq 45%Zac 36%A 9% lead — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 14, 2016 This latest poll follows the Opinium survey for the Evening Standard last week that had Khan with a 5% lead on first preferences which rose to a 10% margin over Zac when second preferences were allocated. Both YouGov and Opinium…

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So far Cameron just has the edge on trust in the mighty battle between him and Boris

So far Cameron just has the edge on trust in the mighty battle between him and Boris

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The CON voter split will be crucial One of the best non-voting intention polling indicators to the referendum could well be the question above used by ComRes at the weekend in its IoS Sunday Mirror online poll. Inevitably the battle is being presented in the media as a mighty clash between the Prime Minister and the Mayor and the question of who is trusted most to act in the interests of Britain is central. Overall but only by a whisker…

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The next CON leader betting and PB/Polling Matters podcast

The next CON leader betting and PB/Polling Matters podcast

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On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran looks back at a busy week in U.S. politics and updates us on the latest results from this weekend and fallout from Trump’s cancelled rally in Chicago. Keiran also argues why he thinks a Trump-Cruz ticket is more likely than the GOP establishment choosing a Kasich, Rubio or Ryan. Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, could Sanders supporters being seen to disrupt Trump campaign events help his campaign and could President Obama’s improving approval…

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Betting on when Osborne ceases to be Chancellor

Betting on when Osborne ceases to be Chancellor

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On Wednesday George Osborne will deliver his eighth budget and I’m starting to wonder if this will be Osborne’s final budget, for the following reasons, Were Leave to win, I expect Cameron to cease being Tory leader, and a new leader, assuming it isn’t Osborne, will want someone else as Chancellor. If the new Leader is Osborne, that will also end Osborne’s tenure  as Chancellor. Even if Remain wins, Cameron is expected to conduct a ‘reconciliation reshuffle’ If it is a…

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How a Labour coup against Corbyn in May could win the EU referendum for Leave

How a Labour coup against Corbyn in May could win the EU referendum for Leave

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Why David Cameron and Remain should be hoping Labour does really well in May’s elections. A Labour leadership contest at the same time as the referendum campaign could favour Leave. Whilst it might seem like the EU referendum is solely an internal Tory party matter, if David Cameron wants Remain to win, he’s going to need Labour voters to turn out for Remain. David Cameron may not be the best person to get Labour voters to come out and vote…

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LAB close the gap by 5 points with ComRes online to just 9% behind

LAB close the gap by 5 points with ComRes online to just 9% behind

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CON 38%-3 LAB 29%+2 LD 7%-2 UKIP 16%+1 GRN 4%+1 The Boris versus Dave findings An encouraging finding for Cameron and one which could be crucial that CON voters are twice as likely to say they trust the PM more than the Mayor to do what is best for Britain (54% say they trust Cameron more v 27% who trust Johnson more). EURef findings but no voting intentions ComResRes voting intwntion numbers have in all case but one come from…

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Now YouGov suggests that Labour’s Scottish nightmare is getting worse

Now YouGov suggests that Labour’s Scottish nightmare is getting worse

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Third place behind the Tories in the Holyrood elections a distinct possibility ScotParl voting intention (list):SNP: 43% (+1)CON: 19% (-1)LAB 17%: (-3)GRN: 8% (+2)LDEM: 5% (-)UKIP: 4% (+1)(via YouGov / 06-09 Mar) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) March 12, 2016 ScotParl voting intention (const.):SNP: 49% (-1)CON: 19% (-1)LAB: 19% (-)LDEM: 6% (-)(via YouGov / 06 – 09 Mar) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) March 12, 2016