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Month: March 2016

After the Romney attack on Trump the latest GOP Nominee TV debate

After the Romney attack on Trump the latest GOP Nominee TV debate

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The debate headline that sums up the GOP racepic.twitter.com/eFX6Gwnpl8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 4, 2016 Only a few hours after the anti Trump speech by 2012 nominee Mitt Romney the four remaining contenders were back on the stage together for the latest GOP debate. This was the summing up by Taegan Goddard of Political Wire “.. Donald Trump and Marco Rubio attacked each other in the harshest terms yet. Trump referred to “Little Marco” while defending the size of…

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Local By-Election Preview : March 3rd 2016

Local By-Election Preview : March 3rd 2016

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Bloomfield (Lab defence) on Blackpool Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 29, Conservatives 13 (Labour majority of 16) Result of ward at last election (2015) : Emboldened denotes elected Labour 1,045, 902 (45%) United Kingdom Independence Party 585 (25%) Conservative 463, 294 (20%) Green Party 202 (9%) Independent 37 (2%) Candidates duly nominated: Phil Armstrong (Green Party), Neil Close (Lib Dem), Jim Hobson (Lab), Tony Jones (Con), David Shackleton (United Kingdom Independence Party) If you excuse a flirtation…

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Trump’s betting price weakens as the 2012 GOP nominee, Mitt Romney, goes to war against the front-runner

Trump’s betting price weakens as the 2012 GOP nominee, Mitt Romney, goes to war against the front-runner

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The tax return section of @MittRomney' speech against Trump is the most potent https://t.co/8NKdHVxGfC pic.twitter.com/IuypPcSVsc — Tim Montgomerie ?? (@montie) March 3, 2016 There’ve been movements in the past hour on the Betfair Echange following a hard hitting speech by the 2012 GOP nominee, Mitt Romney, against Donald Trump. He didn’t mince his words and the attack is getting a lot of coverage in the US media. The question is whether it will have any impact or could it even…

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The collective PBers’ EU Referendum prediction: REMAIN to win by 8.6%, turnout 62.75%

The collective PBers’ EU Referendum prediction: REMAIN to win by 8.6%, turnout 62.75%

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There’ll be further prize competitions end April and end May The chart above shows the breakdown by party supported of entrants in PB’s referendum prediction competition. Interestingly breaking this down by party support not one segment had LEAVE ahead although UKIP voters were very nearly there. People are competing for a £250 free bet with William Hill which has indicated that it will provide similar prizes as we get nearer the big day. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

The White House Race, the referendum and the political bets of the week in the PB/Polling Matters TV Show

The White House Race, the referendum and the political bets of the week in the PB/Polling Matters TV Show

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Our fourth pilot TV show sees Keiran Pedley of Polling Matters and myself welcome the Labour peer and Oxford academic, Lord (Stewart) Wood of Anfield and the media relations director of William Hill, Graham Sharpe. The issues covered were how well Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton did in the Super Tuesday primaries; whether they are now certainties to be their party nominees; the EU referendum campaign and the prospects of Boris becoming Cameron’s successor. Also the third strand of this…

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The idea that post BREXIT trade negotiations would be wrapped up quickly is divorced from reality

The idea that post BREXIT trade negotiations would be wrapped up quickly is divorced from reality

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Table above: Opening excerpt EU Trade deals from 2000 onwards Alastair Meeks questions the assertions from LEAVE & Grayling There has been outrage on the Leave side at the suggestion in an official government paper that negotiations after a vote to leave the EU in the upcoming referendum might take up to 10 years or more.  Chris Grayling commented: “Claims that it will take twice as long to sort out a free trade deal with the EU as it did…

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Super Tuesday: Trump and Clinton didn’t quite get the predicted clean sweeps but they’re both stronger favourites

Super Tuesday: Trump and Clinton didn’t quite get the predicted clean sweeps but they’re both stronger favourites

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Results from Real Clear Politics Post Super Tuesday odds from. Ladbrokes pic.twitter.com/6wD953GsxI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 2, 2016 The expectation before last night was that Trump would probably win all but one of the eleven states. As it turned out Trump took 8. Clinton was expected to have almost a clean sweeps but lost four. This is, of course, a battle not about delegate totals and throughout the night one of the big features of Marco Rubio’s performance was…

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