Browsed by
Month: March 2016

Cyclefree’s analysis of the Remain campaign

Cyclefree’s analysis of the Remain campaign

Comments 0 Comment

Picture credit: Britain Stronger In Facebook page While there has rightly been analysis of an often incoherent Leave campaign, perhaps some scrutiny is needed of some common Remain tropes – those focusing on why we should stay rather than why we should not Leave – and what they might mean for the referendum result and the UK’s longer term relationship with its European neighbours. 1. We will be in a reformed EU and can continue with further reform. This is…

Read More Read More

Why you shouldn’t assume a Brexiter will be Cameron’s successor

Why you shouldn’t assume a Brexiter will be Cameron’s successor

Comments 0 Comment

59% of Tory members back Brexit but only 20% of  members consider backing a Brexiter as the most important criteria in deciding who should be the next leader of the Tory party. The Tories will back someone who is seen as an election winner over a Brexiter. When the Tory Party starts obsessing about the European Union, it is the political equivalent of putting an unlimited supply of laxatives into the monkey house. Excrement starts getting flung in all directions, we…

Read More Read More

Cruz wins the most delegates tonight but it looks like tonight was goodnight Rubio Saturday

Cruz wins the most delegates tonight but it looks like tonight was goodnight Rubio Saturday

Comments 0 Comment

It looks like the GOP establishment plan to stop Trump, as embodied by Mitt Romney, might be working, but is it too late? Summary of tonight's results. GOP: 2 states apiece for Trump & Cruz. Cruz gets the most delegates. pic.twitter.com/1qPi0H2Lt0 — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 6, 2016 After Super Tuesday Trump moved to an 83% implied chance on Betfair for nomination. Now a 64% implied chance pic.twitter.com/0eo6Tf6u70 — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 6, 2016 A fortnight ago Cruz was 70 on…

Read More Read More

Early indications are that Trump not going to have all his own way in the 4 states deciding today

Early indications are that Trump not going to have all his own way in the 4 states deciding today

Comments 0 Comment

Real Clear Politics In Kansas he’s doing much worse than the polls Trump was 6% up in final Kansas poll. With 65% of votes counted he's 27% behind. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 5, 2016 After Super Tuesday Trump moved to an 83% chance on Betfair for nomination. Latest price 53% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 5, 2016

Holyrood 2016: the SNP’s hegemony continues

Holyrood 2016: the SNP’s hegemony continues

Comments 0 Comment

But how bad will it get for Scottish Labour? You wouldn’t know if you only received your news from the London media but there are three general elections in the UK this year. Voters will go to the polls in May to elect new Assemblies in Wales and Northern Ireland and to the Scottish Parliament (as well as a London mayor, various lesser mayors, a bumper set of councillors and PCCs across England and Wales – it’s probably the biggest…

Read More Read More

Don’t expect anything to come of the GOP’s establishment effort to stop Trump

Don’t expect anything to come of the GOP’s establishment effort to stop Trump

Comments 0 Comment

David Herdson on the US race The next rounds take place this weekend with four states electing delegates for the Republicans (Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana and Maine) and four for the Democrats (Kansas,Louisiana,Maine and Nebraska). Much has been made of the apparent desire of the GOP establishment to stop Trump. Don’t expect it to come to anything. The fact that there are two competing and opposing strategies to stop the Donald should reveal that both are inherently weak. The first strategy,…

Read More Read More

Local By-Election Results : March 3rd 2016

Local By-Election Results : March 3rd 2016

Comments 0 Comment

Bloomfield (Lab defence) on Blackpool Result: Labour 450 (58% +13%), Conservative 150 (19% -1%), United Kingdom Independence Party 118 (15% -10%), Green Party 32 (4% -5%), Liberal Democrat 31 (4%, no candidate in 2015) Labour HOLD with a majority of 300 (39%) on a swing of 7% from Conservative to Labour Alderholt (Con defence) on East Dorset Result: Conservative 384 (47% -16%), Liberal Democrat 376 (46%, no candidate in 2015), Labour 49 (6%, no candidate in 2015) Conservative HOLD with…

Read More Read More

Concern about the EU jumps to 4th in the latest Ipsos-MORI Issues Index

Concern about the EU jumps to 4th in the latest Ipsos-MORI Issues Index

Comments 0 Comment

The 20% figure is highest for 13 years Europe/EU jumps to 4th place in latest Ipsos-MORI Issues Index pic.twitter.com/HC51gYMMtU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 4, 2016 Concern about the EU by sub groups in the February Ipsos-MORI Issues Index pic.twitter.com/eDu0ez2jSG — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 4, 2016 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet Politicalbetting/Polling Matters TV Show: Serious discussion for those seriously interested in political outcomes https://t.co/L8URISq49o — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 3, 2016