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Month: January 2016

It is a mistake to assume that all polling bias is against the Tories

It is a mistake to assume that all polling bias is against the Tories

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Remember what happened at GE2010 and the last London Mayoral election This week’s polling news is going to be dominated by the publication tomorrow of the inquiry into what went wrong the GE2015 polls when all the firms undershot the Tory share by big margins. Unfortunately I’m at a memorial service tomorrow and won’t be able to attend the big event. In the build up we’ve started seeing some interesting explanations including one which suggests that CON voters are much…

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Why Labour lost in 2015

Why Labour lost in 2015

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Not even pledges by menhir could help Ed Miliband win a general election pic.twitter.com/7YVLtPG7xp — TSE (@TSEofPB) January 17, 2016 With Corbyn’s personal polling ranging from the calamitous to the cataclysmic it appears Labour are intent on repeating the mistakes of the 2015 general election This week sees two important reports published, firstly the BPC inquiry into why the polls were wrong, then there’s the publication of the report by Dame Margaret Beckett into why Labour lost, parts of Beckett’s…

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Alastair Meeks on why London is different and why Sadiq Khan should win comfortably

Alastair Meeks on why London is different and why Sadiq Khan should win comfortably

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The Grave of Karl Marx via wikimedia commons pic.twitter.com/r6w5UMdXOg — TSE (@TSEofPB) January 16, 2016 London is different.  We often hear that.  But just how different is it?  London’s Mayoral election is due in May.  With no incumbent, we are set for a fight between two rather less charismatic figures than before; neither Zac Goldsmith nor Sadiq Khan yet have the first name recognition or the tabloid quotability of the two previous office-holders.  Default party support is going to be…

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ComRes online: LAB still 11% behind and 73% say party divided

ComRes online: LAB still 11% behind and 73% say party divided

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Not much cheer for the red team 4 months after Corbyn was elected Another Saturday night and another dreadful poll for LAB and its leader. On voting intention there’s no change with the Tories on 40% and LAB on 29%. But it’s the other findings that should concern those in the Labour Party who are hoping for an early return to power. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

David Herdson says the EU Referendum campaign could already be over with REMAIN the victors

David Herdson says the EU Referendum campaign could already be over with REMAIN the victors

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What LEAVE has to do now if it is to have any chance The EU referendum campaign may well already be over with Remain having won. In many ways, that shouldn’t be the case. Europe hardly presents a picture of radiant success on a practical level, while the idea of a common European home is laughable when states are re-erecting borders against each other. A troubled economy, social disharmony and a dysfunctional political system – what more could a Eurosceptic…

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Corbyn’s Trident review. Winning a battle but the losing the war?

Corbyn’s Trident review. Winning a battle but the losing the war?

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Donald Brind: From a Labour perspective Emily Thornberry, the new recruit to the Corbyn Shadow Cabinet has a sense of mischief and tells a great story about her General Election outing in 2001 in the safe Tory seat of Canterbury. Her opponent was Julian Brazier, who is proud of his family’s military heritage. His father was a lieutenant colonel and he spent 13 years as an officer the Territorial Army, five of them in the with the SAS. At a…

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This week’s PB/Polling Matters Podcast puts the focus on UKIP with leading academic expert Prof Matt Goodwin

This week’s PB/Polling Matters Podcast puts the focus on UKIP with leading academic expert Prof Matt Goodwin

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So what now for Farage’s party and the Referendum Campaign This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast talks about UKIP and the upcoming EU referendum with Professor Matthew Goodwin of the University of Kent. Goodwin is one of the foremost experts on UKIP and is co-author of ‘Revolt on the Right’ (2015 political book of the year) and the more recently ‘UKIP: Inside the campaign to redraw the map of British politics’. Topics covered on this week’s podcast include: 1) How is…

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