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Month: December 2015

If it’s Farage versus Carswell then there can only be one outcome – the current leader will win

If it’s Farage versus Carswell then there can only be one outcome – the current leader will win

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Just 15 months ago – happier days for Mr Farage and Mr Carswell pic.twitter.com/HMdFTxPvsZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 18, 2015 Nigel Farage on Douglas Carswell: "We have got one person going round the country giving the impression UKIP is split – that can’t go on." — Steve Hawkes (@steve_hawkes) December 18, 2015 UKIP could be about to become a ZERO MPs party The morning has been dominated by Douglas Carswell’s comments in a BBC interview about his leader, Nigel…

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The PB/Polling Matters Christmas Special Podcast – Part 1

The PB/Polling Matters Christmas Special Podcast – Part 1

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The lessons from 2015 In part one of a two-part Christmas special Keiran is joined by Matt Singh and Rob Vance to look back at the year that was 2015 and discuss what Polling Matters has learned along the way. Key areas discussed include: 1) Where the polls went wrong and the impact polling had on the General Election. 2) Why Keiran thinks developments in Scotland are the big story of the year 3) Why do governments change so infrequently…

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Local By-Election Result (December 16th 2015) and Local By-Election Preview : December 17th 2015

Local By-Election Result (December 16th 2015) and Local By-Election Preview : December 17th 2015

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Gogarth (Con defence) on Conwy Result: Conservative 318 (42% +12%), Labour 187 (25% -3%), Plaid Cymru 167 (22% +10%), Liberal Democrat 49 (7%), Independent 28 (4% -26%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 131 (17%) on a swing of 7.5% from Labour to Conservative Kensal Green (Lab defence) on Brent Result of council at last election (2014): Labour 56, Conservatives 6, Liberal Democrat 1 (Labour majority of 49) Result of ward at last election (2014): Embooldened denotes elected Labour 1,819,…

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The pre-Xmas polling rush continues with poor Corbyn Ipsos MORI ratings but LAB now just 4% behind CON with ComRes

The pre-Xmas polling rush continues with poor Corbyn Ipsos MORI ratings but LAB now just 4% behind CON with ComRes

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Chart showing latest @IpsosMORI leader satisfaction ratings pic.twitter.com/P4d6CvaLy9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 17, 2015 Sharpish drop in Corybn's @IpsosMORI satisfaction ratings amongst LAB voters pic.twitter.com/J0ANmElSjr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 17, 2015 Via @robfordmancs . Net MORI satisfaction ratings after 3 monthsFoot -21Kinnock + 13Smith + 12Blair +27 Brown + 18Ed M + 1 Corbyn -17 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 17, 2015 LAB gets closer in Mail ComRes phone pollCon 37 (-3) Lab 33 (+4) UKIP 11 (nc)…

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Lord Ashcroft polling is back with a 20k sample EURef survey

Lord Ashcroft polling is back with a 20k sample EURef survey

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An unusual voting question approach was used so difficult to make comparisons @LordAshcroft #EUref poll didn't ask simple question but this – pic.twitter.com/XEEvw4dWyV — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 16, 2015 The past 24 hours has seen a glut of EU referendum polling with the latest, overnight, being a 20k sample online poll from Lord Ashcroft. Lord Ashcroft’s post on the survey, linked to above, is well worth reading because it goes into far more than just referendum voting intention. On…

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If Sadiq wins the London Mayoralty then Ken could return to the Commons as MP for Tooting

If Sadiq wins the London Mayoralty then Ken could return to the Commons as MP for Tooting

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He’d be more use to Corbyn there than in the upper house There’s been a lot of talk in recent days about the former LAB Mayor of London, Ken Livingston, being made a peer and perhaps becoming his party’s leader in the Lords. The story I’ve been getting this afternoon is that there’s another plan to enable Ken to return to Westminster. If the betting favourite, Sadiq Khan, does become London Mayor in May’s election then there’ll be a by-election…

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The great EURef phone/online polling divide continues as two new phone polls have 18-21% REMAIN leads

The great EURef phone/online polling divide continues as two new phone polls have 18-21% REMAIN leads

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Revised table of latest #EURef polling showing the 2 phone polls published this morning. pic.twitter.com/uk9ilG1Kb9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 16, 2015 The oldies seem to respond most differently on the phone This morning we’ve got the EU referendum phone polls for two months and as can be seen in the table, they have numbers which are totally out of line with with all the online surveys. First out was ComRes with its poll for Open Europe followed by Ipsos…

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The latest GOP debate changes nothing – the front runners are still Trump, Rubio and Cruz

The latest GOP debate changes nothing – the front runners are still Trump, Rubio and Cruz

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The betting barely moved I didn’t stay up for the latest GOP debate overnight and have yet to watch the entire event. So my comments here are based on the betting markets and what respected US commentators thought. This was the judgement of Political Wire’s Taegan Goddard: “.. Once again, Trump was the winner. Cruz took some hits on how he would combat the Islamic State, but he was very strong. Rubio fell short in defending himself on immigration in…

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