Generally on days like this George Osborne improves his Betfair “Next PM” chances

Generally on days like this George Osborne improves his Betfair “Next PM” chances

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Why my money’s gone on the Chancellor this morning

Today’s the chancellor’s autumn statement – the second big set piece of Mr. Osborne’s parliamentary year. Usually, the “Omnishambles” budget of 2012 apart, he gets a good initial reaction and the betting markets respond accordingly.

So I’ve developed a little trading procedure to try to profit. I back Osbo on Betfair’s next PM markets before speeches and lay him in the months ahead when things often don’t look as good. In July I was on George at an average of 5.8 (that 4.8/1 in conventional odds) on Betfair’s next PM market and got out completely in September/October at an average 3.02 (just over 2/1). That produced a nice profit.

Clearly the market have downgraded his chances quite sharply and this morning I was back betting the Chancellor once again – this time at 3.8 or 2.8/1.

I’m in for the short term. I don’t know whether George will make it in the end but my guess is that perceptions will improve.

Back in the heady days of June and July Osbo moved to a 50% “next PM” chance on Betfair. Then he could do no wrong. Since then the tax credits saga has taken its toll and my bet was at a level that rates his chances at 26%.

One thing about Osborne is that he learns from past mistakes. There’ve been no more 2012-type budgets.

Mike Smithson



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