Osbo, who in Sept was 50% chance on Betfair next PM market – now down to 26%. Will today see him go up or down? pic.twitter.com/5RcwuKaPZU
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 25, 2015
Why my money’s gone on the Chancellor this morning
Today’s the chancellor’s autumn statement – the second big set piece of Mr. Osborne’s parliamentary year. Usually, the “Omnishambles” budget of 2012 apart, he gets a good initial reaction and the betting markets respond accordingly.
So I’ve developed a little trading procedure to try to profit. I back Osbo on Betfair’s next PM markets before speeches and lay him in the months ahead when things often don’t look as good. In July I was on George at an average of 5.8 (that 4.8/1 in conventional odds) on Betfair’s next PM market and got out completely in September/October at an average 3.02 (just over 2/1). That produced a nice profit.
Clearly the market have downgraded his chances quite sharply and this morning I was back betting the Chancellor once again – this time at 3.8 or 2.8/1.
I’m in for the short term. I don’t know whether George will make it in the end but my guess is that perceptions will improve.
Back in the heady days of June and July Osbo moved to a 50% “next PM” chance on Betfair. Then he could do no wrong. Since then the tax credits saga has taken its toll and my bet was at a level that rates his chances at 26%.
One thing about Osborne is that he learns from past mistakes. There’ve been no more 2012-type budgets.