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Month: October 2015

Local By-Election Preview : October 22nd 2015 – 4 Con and 2 Lab defences

Local By-Election Preview : October 22nd 2015 – 4 Con and 2 Lab defences

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Tottington on Bury (Lab defence) Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 35, Conservatives 12, Independents 2, Liberal Democrats 2 (Labour majority of 19) Result of ward at last election (2012): Labour 1,085 (42%), Conservative 965 (38%), United Kingdom Independence Party 379 (15%), Liberal Democrat 135 (5%) Candidates duly nominated: David Foss (Lib Dem), Martin Hayes (Lab), Ian Henderson (UKIP), Greg Keeley (Con), John Southworth (Green) Bury is that sort of council that can either be a battleground council…

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Ipsos MORI referendum REMAIN lead drops by an astonishing 24 points

Ipsos MORI referendum REMAIN lead drops by an astonishing 24 points

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New Ipsos-MORI phone poll finds REMAIN on 57% to LEAVE 43% on EU referendum. In June the firm had 69-31 for staying. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 22, 2015 Ipsos MORI 14% remain EU referendum lead means once again phone polls more likely to be pro-EU than online. Latest YouGov REMAIN was 1% up — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 22, 2015 By a margin of more than 2 to 1 those sampled by @IpsosMORI say they think REMAIN will win…

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Oldham West & Royton set to be Corbyn’s first big electoral test

Oldham West & Royton set to be Corbyn’s first big electoral test

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BBC News data & graphic He needs a good result to calm his party’s nerves The very first by election of the 2015 parliament has now been triggered by the sad death of Michael Meacher who, it might be recalled, sought to mount a leadership challenge in the post-Blair leadership election. On the face of it this should be an easy hold for Labour although UKIP will have noted that they did pretty well there on May 7th coming in…

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Hillary moves much closer to the nomination following Joe Biden’s announcement that he won’t be running

Hillary moves much closer to the nomination following Joe Biden’s announcement that he won’t be running

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Latest Betfair trade: Clinton 83.3% chance Next year’s White House race looks a lot clearer this evening following Joe Biden’s announcement within the past hour that he will not run for the Democratic nomination. There are other runners still in the race including the Vermont socialist Senator, Bernie Sanders but it’s hard to see how they can mount a challenge that puts Hillary at risk. Sanders who is in his mid 70s has been polling well, although Hillary is a…

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Corbyn had Cameron struggling on tax credits at PMQs – but then changed the subject

Corbyn had Cameron struggling on tax credits at PMQs – but then changed the subject

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A opportunity missed Overall Corbyn is doing a better job at PMQs than many of his detractors predicted. Because it is so difficult for oppositions to make the political weather this weekly event is a very valuable peg to get media coverage and mustn’t be wasted. Inevitably this morning Corbyn was able to quote back at the PM the comments by the young MP, Heidi Allen who used her maiden speech yesterday to record her opposition to what Osborne is…

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New study by John Curtice suggests that the referendum LEAVE/REMAIN divide is about class, age and education

New study by John Curtice suggests that the referendum LEAVE/REMAIN divide is about class, age and education

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The picture above was taken at last month’s UKIP conference where there was a great effort to aim at the young. Whether dressing the youngsters up in these t-shirts will have an impact I don’t know but the LEAVE camp is very much aware of where it’s weakness is. A new study just out by John Curtice, him of exit poll fame, points to the very big demographic divides between those saying they want to leave the EU and those…

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Mr. Corbyn joins the establishment

Mr. Corbyn joins the establishment

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Things I knew but didn't appreciate at the time: Ed Miliband was TALL: pic.twitter.com/z2Bh9oFD1u — Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) October 20, 2015 I must say I’m quite impressed and it says a lot about him. An event like tonight’s is clearly something that as Opposition Leader he had to attend and there are dress codes. He made the right decision. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Doing “Best PM” comparisons between Corbyn & Dave is like asking US voters to choose between Obama and Trump

Doing “Best PM” comparisons between Corbyn & Dave is like asking US voters to choose between Obama and Trump

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We all know that David Cameron is not planning to remain as prime minister after the next general election. So the choice will between Corbyn, unless he’s replaced in the meantime, and AN Other. So why is it that pollsters, and presumably their media clients who agree to the form of questioning, continue with best p.m. ratings that include the current prime minister? The findings really don’t have any relevance to the next big election battle in the UK. Thankfully,…

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