— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 14, 2015
She’s now back as a 74% chance on Betfair
Overnight in Las Vagas there’s been the first TV debate of the Democratic primary. This was all about Hillary and how well she’d perform after a period of declining poll ratings and the rise of Bernie Sanders now with substantial leads in New Hampshire.
The big news is that she came out of it well and this has been reflected on Betfair where’s she’s now moved to a 74% chance of winning the nomination.
Overshadowing the campaign so far has been the issue of whether the Vice-President, Joe Biden, would throw his hat into the ring and he’s been polling very well. He wasn’t, of course, on stage.
Hillary was confident and assured and it’s going to be very difficult for others now to take her on. For at this stage a White House bid is all about winning the support of the party machine and, of course, the big donors. Running for President doesn’t come cheap.
Because Hillary has been regarded as the presumptive nominee for so long there’s been a reluctance for possible supporters of other contenders to commit. The debate will accentuate that.
My guess is that Biden, who is fast running out of time if he wants to get on the ballot in the early primaries, will now be less likely to enter the race.
A consequential question is how an assured Hillary is going to impact on the Republican race. Who of the dozen or so contenders seeking that nomination has got what it takes to take on Clinton?