What we don’t know is whether the CON leadership contest will take place before or after the general election
The leadership uncertainty remains
One thing that David Cameron made very clear in his speech is that he is going to continue as leader right up to the general election. That, of course, assumes that there will be no dramatic event that would cause a move before then.
The intention, of course, was to take some of the wind out of the sails of the inevitable leadership speculation that has continued throughout the conference. To an extent he probably succeeded.
The question remains, though, is will his replacement be selected before the general election or will that happen afterwards?
There are good arguments for going with either option. If Cameron plans to have this taking place before the election then at least voters will know who the party is putting forward for Prime Minister. The choice will between the new person and a Corbyn/Jarvis/DMillband/Another led LAB?
If Cameron decides that the selection should take place after the general election then it could raise all sorts of difficulties in terms of electors not knowing whom they are actually voting for as prime minister.
My sense is that Cameron will probably opt for the latter course if he is able to do so. He will want the kudos of a third General Election victory.
We also know that Cameron is more popular than his party and him leading at the next election could probably attract more support than the new person. Maybe we are talking about a Conservative contest taking place in late 2020 or early 2021.
Whatever the longer it will be before the contest the greater the chance of a surprise.