After the confusing messages from the polls punters seem to be backing Ashcroft rather than Populus
Tories up 4 & back at the high point on SportingIndex commons seat market. Now just 2 behind LAB pic.twitter.com/Y9ULu3648A
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2015
LAB majority on the Betfair exchange slumps to lowest level yet based on last trades. LAB 11.9% chance. CON 16.7% chance. NOM 71.5%
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2015
As a general rule CON backers most influenced by good news
After yesterday’s Lord Ashcroft CON 6% lead poll and the Populus 5% LAB one it looks as though the markets are being more influenced by the former rather than the latter.
This is in keeping with what we’ve seen historically – CON backers tend to be the most optimistic.
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In fact at only one recent UK general election, 2005, have the spread markets pointed to a better outcome for the blues than actually happened.
A big challenge for punters is working out what poll shares mean in seat terms and there’s no sure and safe guide to this – even more so since the SNP surge in Scotland. In England Ashcroft had the Tories with an 8% lead which is 3.4% down on what the party secured at GE2010. On a theoretical uniform swing in England the Tories would lose about 20 seats to LAB