After the most intensive polling week of the year the one thing that we haven’t got is clarity
— PolPics (@PolPics) December 14, 2014
Following poor results for LAB from Ipsos-MORI & Lord Ashcroft YouGov ends the week with the party 5% ahead
LAB lead moves to 5% in today's YouGov poll for the Sun
LAB 35%, CON 30%, UKIP 16%, GRNS 8%, LD 6%2
Best for EdM's party for months
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 19, 2014
Four and a half months from the big day
The week before Christmas is always an intensive one for polling as the monthly surveys all get concentrated into a few days. This has been added to this year by latest batch of marginals single seat surveys from Lord Ashcroft.
The big picture would not have been hard to deduce if it had not been for yesterday’s Ipsos-MORI CON 3% lead and the smaller swings to LAB coming from Lord Ashcroft. EdM could be feeling quite pleased.
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As it is we have a very mixed picture of polling snapshots with something for everyone provided they turn a blind eye to numbers they don’t like
The LDs are in a range of 6% from YouGov to 14% from ICM. The Greens saw 9% from Ipsos-MORI to 2% from ComRes online while LAB shares ranged from 29% with Ipsos-MORI to 35% in the latest YouGov.
We haven’t even got a methodology divide with the phone pollsters pointing one way and online another.
Still to come, and perhaps most important of all, is a Scottish poll. The monthly survey by Survation for the Daily Record is due and could tell us whether Scotland’s new LAB leader is going to help in coming months.
If pressed I’d probably say I still think LAB most seats but with a real possibility of the Tories coming top in national vote share.