There’s an inexorable feeling that the next election will be just like 1992
Will the next US Presidential election could well be Bush v Clinton, again?
The big news in last day was this tweet
I am excited to announce I will actively explore the possibility of running for President of the United States: https://t.co/luY4lCF2cA.
— Jeb Bush (@JebBush) December 16, 2014
Back in February I advised backing him as Republican Party Nominee at 10/1, he is now trading as low as 9/4 right now.
A poll for NBC/WSJ found that
Just 31% of all voters say they could see themselves supporting [Jeb Bush] for president, while 57% say they can’t. He’s more popular among Republicans (55% support, 34% can’t support), which is the second-best GOP score in the poll behind Mitt Romney. But he fares worse among Democrats (9%-79%) and, more importantly, independents (34%-52%). These numbers follow our Nov. 2014 NBC/WSJ poll, which found Bush’s fav/unfav rating at a net-negative 26%-33%.
The same poll however found
A whopping 71% of American voters want the next president to take a different approach than Obama’s; Clinton served as his first-term secretary of state. And by 40% to 38%, voters prefer a Republican to win the White House in 2016 instead of a Democrat. “This is an electorate –by a large margin — looking for change,”
The betting markets would seem to indicate that the 2016 Presidential Election will be Jeb Bush versus Hillary Clinton. I think if it is those two, the sheer emotive ability of their surnames will galvanise their opponents and that probably favours Hillary Clinton, if those Dems who voted for Obama are thinking of not voting.
I’m expecting the Democratic Party Candidate to still win, because of the demographic changes that don’t favour the Republican Party, but the Republican Party’s chances of winning the White House in 2016 are enhanced, because if they have any hope of winning the White House, they need to take Florida and her twenty nine electoral college votes, and having the former two time Governor of Florida as your candidate should help.
The odds on the US Presidential election are available here