Maybe we should all stop looking at the polls and wait till after the holiday season
Since Osborne's Autumn statement all the pollsters bar YouGov have had LAB leads pic.twitter.com/hQTcWdT8XI
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 16, 2014
Since Nov 10 all polls bar YouGov’s have had LAB leads
Interesting looking through the Wiki list of Westminster voting intention polls and one thing stands out – LAB has maintained a lead of some sort with all the firms apart from YouGov which, of course, reports five times a week for the Sun and the Sunday Times.
Above are all the surveys since the autumn statement and the pattern is seen there. The hoped for boost that the blue team was hoping for has not really changed the picture.
But it is hard drawing conclusions and things might look very different in the New Year.
Lord Ashcroft used to say that the best polls to look at were the first ones in the New Year – simply because people are more clear headed and the polls are less influenced by the day by day media coverage. I’ve often thought that there was something in that.
May 7th will feel a lot lot closer after the holidays and this will focus voter’s minds. Do voters really want to switch and will perceptions of the different leaders start to play a bigger part?
The fear of the unknown is the blue team’s strongest card and, no doubt, they will play it effectively.