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Month: October 2014

UPDATED: Just 5,688 of Rochester’s 70k+ electors took part in the Tory primary and the winner got it by less than 1%

UPDATED: Just 5,688 of Rochester’s 70k+ electors took part in the Tory primary and the winner got it by less than 1%

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@jameschappers Given that each of the 70k+ electors got a reported THREE mailings 5,588 ballots returned still makes it a flop — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2014 The earlier Spectator report proved to an underestimate The reported turnout of 4000 in the Rochester Tory primary is a disaster for the party given the efforts put into it pic.twitter.com/bPJAMgYGHq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2014 By comparison with low turn-out in Rochester Conservative primary, 16,497 people voted in Totnes…

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After the ComRes Rochester poll UKIP becomes an even firmer betting favourite

After the ComRes Rochester poll UKIP becomes an even firmer betting favourite

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UKIP price moves up sharply on the Betfair exchange Rochester market. Now an 80% chance pic.twitter.com/hzXnTzgtFx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2014 Next we’ll see polls with the candidates named Amazing to recall that two and a half weeks ago the Tories had a brief spell as favourite on the Rochester betting markets. Then came the first poll from Survation which had a 9% UKIP lead and now we have the ComRes 13% one. It’s a brave punter who…

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Generally the oldies are the key group for UKIP yet in the ComRes Rochester poll they give Reckless a lead of just 1%

Generally the oldies are the key group for UKIP yet in the ComRes Rochester poll they give Reckless a lead of just 1%

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Most worrying numbers for UKIP from the ComRes Rochester poll: Amongst the oldies Reckless is only 1% ahead pic.twitter.com/jcYxvNYhwO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2014 Looking more closely at the numbers Let there be no doubt – the UKIP donor funded ComRes Rochester poll was terrible news for the Tories coming as it has just before the party announces the result of its all-postal primary on who should be the candidate. Looking closely at the ComRes data two demographic…

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On the eve of the CON primary result a UKIP donor funded ComRes Rochester poll has the purples 13% ahead

On the eve of the CON primary result a UKIP donor funded ComRes Rochester poll has the purples 13% ahead

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UKIP campaign HQ Rochester pic.twitter.com/dGnzE4E8SN — PolPics (@PolPics) October 19, 2014 UKIP 43: CON 30: LAB 21: LD 3: GRN 2 Th big by-election news tonight which has already been anticipated by the betting markets is a new UKIP donor funded poll of Rochester & Strood in the Daily Express. The news is not good for the Tories and very good for the purples. The poll has Farage’s party in a better position than it was in the Mail/Survation poll…

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As UKIP surges Ipsos-MORI finds that support for wanting to stay in the EU is at a 23 year high

As UKIP surges Ipsos-MORI finds that support for wanting to stay in the EU is at a 23 year high

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Latest "leave or remain" the EU finding from Ipsos-MORI has remain with 20% lead pic.twitter.com/4fuJ0kHiau — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 22, 2014 The Ipsos-MORI "should we leave/stay in the EU" findings reaches a 23 year high for remain pic.twitter.com/ghr6lwUUU6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 22, 2014 Could the Kippers be giving the BOOers a bad name? As I often say one of the great things about Ipsos-MORI is that it has been carrying out political polls in the UK for…

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Rochester and Strood is being presented as solely a CON-UKIP battle – but what about Labour?

Rochester and Strood is being presented as solely a CON-UKIP battle – but what about Labour?

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Naushabah Khan – Labour's candidate in the Rochester by-election pic.twitter.com/EJVyShi0Pn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 22, 2014 Could the Kickboxer kick CON and UKIP ass? After Labour’s pitiful performances at the Heywood and Newark by-elections it is easy to dismiss their chances entirely in the Rochester and Strood by-election on November 20th. The national party has not given the impression that this is a priority and recent form does not bode well. But in the only polling that’s been done,…

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The best guide to GE15 will come from single constituency polls NOT the national surveys and the seat calculators

The best guide to GE15 will come from single constituency polls NOT the national surveys and the seat calculators

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At what level majority will Lord A find the Tories holding on in the marginals? In the past year we’ve seen a revolution in British political polling which is totally transforming the way wrong look at General Elections. Rather than the focus being on national polls from which we can project seat numbers we are seeing an avalanche of constituency polls coming mostly from Lord Ashcroft and initiatives funded by wealthy UKIP donors. These are serious polls of single constituencies…

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