Generally the oldies are the key group for UKIP yet in the ComRes Rochester poll they give Reckless a lead of just 1%
Most worrying numbers for UKIP from the ComRes Rochester poll: Amongst the oldies Reckless is only 1% ahead pic.twitter.com/jcYxvNYhwO
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2014
Looking more closely at the numbers
Let there be no doubt – the UKIP donor funded ComRes Rochester poll was terrible news for the Tories coming as it has just before the party announces the result of its all-postal primary on who should be the candidate.
Looking closely at the ComRes data two demographic segments stand out. Firstly there are the oldies, those of 65 and above, who normally are the biggest supporters of all for Farage’s party. In this poll however, as the extract from the dataset above shows, it is nothing like as clear cut with Mark Reckless just 1% ahead.
As I’ve said many times on PB in a vast range of elections the oldies are crucial. They are most likely to be on the electoral register, most likely to actually vote and least likely to change their mind.
The second positive figure for the Tories from the demographic splits is how well the blues are doing with the AB groups showing a clear cut lead.
The big feature from the poll is how reliant in the ComRes poll UKIP are on non-voters from 2010. This is what the leading political scientist and UKIP expert, Rob Ford, Tweeted last night:-
Impressive result for #UKIP in latest Rochester poll widening lead to 13 pts. However, almost entire lead does depend on 2010 non-voters 1/2
— Rob Ford (Britain) (@robfordmancs) October 22, 2014
2/2 Turning out prev non-voters will be v tough in late Nov by-election. Without them ballot is v tight and Reckless relies of Lab votes
— Rob Ford (Britain) (@robfordmancs) October 22, 2014
I’m told that we should be getting the results from the CON Rochester postal primary this evening. The number to look out for is the turnout.