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Month: September 2014

Alex Salmond says there are no NO voters, just deferred YES ones

Alex Salmond says there are no NO voters, just deferred YES ones

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You’ve got to be careful making presumptions about voters Given the polls there are three things that YES/Salmond have to do: Ensure there’s a maximum turnout amongst those currently saying YES; try to win over some switchers, and endeavour to ensure lower turnout levels amongst those inclined to NO. It is that last category, I’d suggest, that are most important which is why YES/Salmond have to ensure that what they do doesn’t galvanise those who are against change. I’m far…

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Make no mistake the polls point to the IndyRef being on a knife-edge and so much depends on turnout

Make no mistake the polls point to the IndyRef being on a knife-edge and so much depends on turnout

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More than 80% of postal votes have now been returned The big unknown from this election is turnout – something that all the pollsters seek to measure and apply when working out their final vote shares. Thus the 2% NO lead ICM phone poll used the firm’s standard turnout adjuster of attaching a 50% discount to those who didn’t vote in previous parliamentary elections. But in the context Thursday’s totally unprecedented election we don’t know whether that’s a valid approach…

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The rolling IndyRef polling thread…LATEST Panelbase has NO margin down to 1.2%

The rolling IndyRef polling thread…LATEST Panelbase has NO margin down to 1.2%

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Tonight’s IndyRef polling running blog A total of four polls are expected tonight and this thread and chart will be updated as new information comes in. Opinium for the Observer has NO 6% ahead and Panelbase for the Sunday Times has a gap of just 1.2%. Earlier there was a ultra small sample online poll from ICM for the S Telegraph which had an 8% YES lead – in sharp contrast to firm’s phone poll for the Guardian. There was…

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Survation Indyref poll is out

Survation Indyref poll is out

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Survation #indyref poll is No 54 Yes 46 – Is reportedly a phone poll, so not good to compare to their last poll which was an online poll — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 13, 2014 On what appears to be first of a few indyref polls out today, the first one is survation, which should relax those at Better Together, as it gives them a larger lead than the ICM phone poll yesterday showed. As the tweet above notes,…

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David Herdson says “LAB most votes – CON most seats” is a good bet at 66-1

David Herdson says “LAB most votes – CON most seats” is a good bet at 66-1

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Why the “impossible” could happen Labour has won most votes at a general election before and come out behind on seats.  It happened in 1951, when Attlee’s Labour polled over 13.9m votes: around a quarter of a million more than Churchill’s Conservatives, who nonetheless formed a majority government (and for that matter, more than Labour has ever polled in any other election).  A lot has changed since then and the conventional wisdom is that such an outcome is no longer…

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This week’s local By-Election Results

This week’s local By-Election Results

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Castle on Carlisle (Lab Defence) Result: Labour 364 (38% -4% on 2011), Conservatives 212 (22%), UKIP 208 (22%), Liberal Democrats 112 (12% -22%), Greens 51 (5% -5%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 152 (16%) on a swing of 13% from Labour to Conservative Castle on Cumbria (Lab Defence) Result: Labour 389 (38% -3%), Conservatives 245 (24% +13%), UKIP 235 (23% +3%), Liberal Democrats 112 (11% -13%), Greens 51 (5% +1%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 144 (14%) on…

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…meanwhile in the race to win GE2015 now less than seven months away….

…meanwhile in the race to win GE2015 now less than seven months away….

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Sept Ipsos-MORI has CON 1% lead amongst those certain to vote but 3% behind amongst all giving an opinion pic.twitter.com/JlQ59xwTNH — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 12, 2014 LAB lead up with today's Populus online poll Lab 37 (+1), Con 33 (-1), LD 9 (=), UKIP 13 (+1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 12, 2014 LAB set to win more GE2015 seats on 2.6% fewer votes than CON according to latest @StephenDFisher projection. pic.twitter.com/mwe7mXJY98 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 12, 2014

ICM phone poll for Guardian has it at 51% NO to 49% YES – too close to call

ICM phone poll for Guardian has it at 51% NO to 49% YES – too close to call

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At current odds the value bet is on YES BREAKING: Scottish #indyref too close to call says ICM @guardian poll > 42% no, 40% yes, but a full 17% undecided http://t.co/pSmwv00Zl7 — Guardian Scotland (@GdnScotland) September 12, 2014 With the IndyRef so close the value bet must be on YES. £100 bet on Betfair provides winnings of YES £350 NO £24 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 12, 2014 Reason why 17% DKs in ICM phone poll compared with 4% YouGov is that…

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