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Month: September 2014

After a challenging election the final surveys from Ipsos-MORI, Survation and Panelbase win the polling accuracy race

After a challenging election the final surveys from Ipsos-MORI, Survation and Panelbase win the polling accuracy race

The polling lessons of September 18th As I have been repeatedly saying over the past few weeks the referendum posed a massive challenge for the pollsters. A big aspect, featured in Marf’s carton this morning, were what became known as the “shy Noes” – those who opposed change but were often reluctant in the emotion-charged atmosphere of the election to say so. The other big uncertainty was the record turnout with groups of voters who’d never been to a polling…

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A solid win for NO but what about that “vow” by Cameron, Clegg and Miliband?

A solid win for NO but what about that “vow” by Cameron, Clegg and Miliband?

@MSmithsonPB A shy No in Lenzie East Dinbartonshire pic.twitter.com/kA20O1uvPJ — Dr Bel Brooks-Gordon (@BelindaBG) September 19, 2014 Curtice says that the NO winning margin will be bigger than that predicted by the polls — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 19, 2014 Better Together's Jim Murphy celebrating with a supporter pic.twitter.com/kpxb4hNrxg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 19, 2014 This front page could come to haunt the three leaders This front page from the Daily Record is set to dominate Westminster politics. It's…

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The first four results are in – It is looking for great for No

The first four results are in – It is looking for great for No

Western Isles goes NO 53.4%. (yes 46.4%) Another disappointment for YES as some polls suggested it wld be yes camp's biggest potential win — Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) September 19, 2014 Ouch. YES fails to win the Western Isles — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 19, 2014 TSE

The early turnout figures shows it will be a record breaking turnout.

The early turnout figures shows it will be a record breaking turnout.

Turnup figures coming in (not turnout – as includes spoilt ballots) Orkney 83.7%, Clackmannanshire 88.6% — Rob Ford (Britain) (@robfordmancs) September 18, 2014 Inverclyde total ballots cast 87.4 #indyref — Rob Ford (Britain) (@robfordmancs) September 18, 2014 Renfrewshire total ballots cast 87.3% — Rob Ford (Britain) (@robfordmancs) September 18, 2014 Though Dundee’s figure was a surprise Dundee turnout is 78.8%. Its been dubbed "Yes City" – fact turnout is lower than in some other areas could be disappointing for Yes…

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The indyref results thread – As YouGov have a poll out

The indyref results thread – As YouGov have a poll out

Like the Ipsos-Mori, there’s a small swing to No, as the Betfair price on Yes hits 14.5 YouGov #IndyRef prediction: YES 46%, NO 54% – http://t.co/huG6uJFiJG — YouGov (@YouGov) September 18, 2014 The YouGov poll isn’t an exit poll, but I post it here for the sake of completeness. Nearly 2,000 Scots were contacted by YouGov after they had been to the polling stations. So the polling and the bookies makes for great reading for Unionists, but as ever, we need…

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Scotland decides: the Loch Ness Monster (and Marf) enter the fray

Scotland decides: the Loch Ness Monster (and Marf) enter the fray

But does this benefit NO or YES? Less than three hours to go and all the indications that that the turnout is very large. At this stage there’s nothing to measure it against and it’s hard making a prediction on something which there’s an active betting market. Quite who this benefits most is also hard to say. Whether it is YES getting out the first time voters or NO bringing in the “Shy Noes” or maybe it’s a large slab…

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Possibly not good news for the Scottish separatists: the final two polls to be completed have NO with the largest leads

Possibly not good news for the Scottish separatists: the final two polls to be completed have NO with the largest leads

Final @IpsosMORI phone poll has YES 47 NO 53 This is same as @Survation phone poll where fieldwork finished at 9pm last night — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 18, 2014 @IpsosMORI poll carried out Monday & Tues had 2% NO lead The one completed last night had 6% NO lead. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 18, 2014 So the last poll is out. The Ipsos-MORI phone survey completed yesterday evening has a 6% lead. That compares with a 2% lead in its poll…

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Good morning Scotland! Will it be different from the polls in the privacy of the polling booth?

Good morning Scotland! Will it be different from the polls in the privacy of the polling booth?

How millions of Scottish voters fill in this form today will determine the future of the UK. pic.twitter.com/ascFqVwoDW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 18, 2014 It was in Quebec in Oct 1995 when the separatists lost The final polls from the 1995 Quebec referendum when NO won by a fraction of 1% pic.twitter.com/Kx62Ck5uls — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 18, 2014 Two hours before the polling stations open the Betfair exchange makes NO an 82% chance. Could punters be wrong? — Mike…

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