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The polling lessons of September 18th As I have been repeatedly saying over the past few weeks the referendum posed a massive challenge for the pollsters. A big aspect, featured in Marf’s carton this morning, were what became known as the “shy Noes” – those who opposed change but were often reluctant in the emotion-charged atmosphere of the election to say so. The other big uncertainty was the record turnout with groups of voters who’d never been to a polling…

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@MSmithsonPB A shy No in Lenzie East Dinbartonshire pic.twitter.com/kA20O1uvPJ — Dr Bel Brooks-Gordon (@BelindaBG) September 19, 2014 Curtice says that the NO winning margin will be bigger than that predicted by the polls — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 19, 2014 Better Together's Jim Murphy celebrating with a supporter pic.twitter.com/kpxb4hNrxg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 19, 2014 This front page could come to haunt the three leaders This front page from the Daily Record is set to dominate Westminster politics. It's…

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But does this benefit NO or YES? Less than three hours to go and all the indications that that the turnout is very large. At this stage there’s nothing to measure it against and it’s hard making a prediction on something which there’s an active betting market. Quite who this benefits most is also hard to say. Whether it is YES getting out the first time voters or NO bringing in the “Shy Noes” or maybe it’s a large slab…

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Final @IpsosMORI phone poll has YES 47 NO 53 This is same as @Survation phone poll where fieldwork finished at 9pm last night — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 18, 2014 @IpsosMORI poll carried out Monday & Tues had 2% NO lead The one completed last night had 6% NO lead. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 18, 2014 So the last poll is out. The Ipsos-MORI phone survey completed yesterday evening has a 6% lead. That compares with a 2% lead in its poll…

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