After the rumours that a YES lead poll is about to be published Ladbrokes open market on the next Panelbase findings
CORRECTION
Ladbrokes odds on next Panelbase IndyRef poll
YES 3/1
NO 2/5
TIE 5/1
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 4, 2014
This might be a good way to flush out the data. If the odds change sharply or Ladbrokes suspend market then we’ll know something’s happening.
Expecting the next "face-to-face" TNS-BMRB Indy Ref poll in the middle of next week. The firm has tended to have bigger NO figures.
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 4, 2014
I’ve got a feeling that TNS might do very well in the IndyRef polling table. The firm’s fieldwork is face to face as part of larger consumer surveys.
In answer to everyone who is asking, @YouGov's next Scottish Referendum poll will be in the Sunday Times this Sunday. #indyref
— Joe Twyman (@JoeTwyman) September 4, 2014
YouGov, of course, made big methodological changes to their Scottish polls in mid-August. Until then they hadn’t been including 1-17 years olds and they now have a weighting based on whether people were born in Scotland.