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Month: July 2014

Trying to explain why the Ashcroft National Poll appears to be so erratic

Trying to explain why the Ashcroft National Poll appears to be so erratic

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Turnout filtering might be the key At the excellent PB gathering in Ilkley last night the big topic of conversation was the extraordinary Ashcroft national poll which saw the 2% CON lead of last week become a 7% LAB one. At 4pm each Monday afternoon since the start of May Lord Ashcroft has been publishing his weekly national phone poll. This has been a great addition to the overall polling mix particularly because testing political opinion in this way has…

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Exactly 10 months till GE2015 and LAB moves to 7 point leads with both Populus and Lord Ashcroft

Exactly 10 months till GE2015 and LAB moves to 7 point leads with both Populus and Lord Ashcroft

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So was that the Junkers boost that was? Just a week ago the Ashcroft phone poll recorded a CON lead of 2%. Last Friday Populus had the Tories just 1% behind. Well things look very different today with two polls both having LAB with a margin of 7%. Generally whenever a poll produces figures that are out of the ordinary we wisely say wait to see if this shift is seen in other surveys. Well that’s certainly happened today and…

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Dave is beating Ed on leader ratings but on nothing like the scale of Major over Kinnock ahead of GE1992

Dave is beating Ed on leader ratings but on nothing like the scale of Major over Kinnock ahead of GE1992

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Cameron’s currently running just ahead of Kinnock One of the great hopes for the Tories as they face GE2015 with a deficit in the voting intention polls is what happened at GE1992. Then it will be recalled John Major was returned with a majority even though all the polls pointed to a hung parliament. At that election non-voting intention numbers like the leader satisfaction ratings were a better guide to the outcome. Could the same happen at GE2015? What is…

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Ex-UKIP leader chosen by Tories to fight the seat’s where Farage is said to be interested

Ex-UKIP leader chosen by Tories to fight the seat’s where Farage is said to be interested

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CON choose ex-UKIP leader to fight Thanet S Against Farage? My money's now going on LAB in this tight 3-way marginal pic.twitter.com/eG2CKD2MGQ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 6, 2014 The tactical anti-UKIP vote could now go to LAB Latest Thanet S betting Ukip favourite pic.twitter.com/c2sFbpGDLQ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 6, 2014

New TNS-BMRB IndyRef poll finds big fall in don’t knows but the overall picture remains

New TNS-BMRB IndyRef poll finds big fall in don’t knows but the overall picture remains

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Time is starting to run out for YES There’s a new TNS-BMRB IndyRef poll out this morning that has both YES and NO moving up with a fall in don’t knows. The pollster, like YouGov, has tended to show YES in a poorer position than some of the other firms and asks a slightly different voting intention question. Rather than the conventional “how would you vote tomorrow” TNS asks what people are planning to do on September 18th. The affect…

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Reminder: The PB Yorkshire gathering – Flying Duck Ilkley Monday 6.30pm

Reminder: The PB Yorkshire gathering – Flying Duck Ilkley Monday 6.30pm

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And an event is planned for Manchester on September 23rd Thanks to all those who’ve contacted me about the Ilkley event on Monday. This’ll be held in the Flying Duck pub from about 6.30pm. We’ll probably be upstairs. The address is 16 Church Street and the postcode is LS29 9DS. It was on the route for today’s opening stage of the Tour de France. I’m told that Monday evening is generally the quietest and most of the TDF crowds will…

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David Herdson says: “Time for Britain’s greatest county to stand up”

David Herdson says: “Time for Britain’s greatest county to stand up”

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Whatever it is that makes a nation, Yorkshire has it The folk of God’s Own County tend to be a reticent bunch, not much given to singing their own praises (or indeed, anyone else’s), but as cycling’s greatest race speeds spectacularly over the Broad Acres this weekend – an event the locals have greeted with characteristic enthusiasm and humour – it’s a good occasion to ask whether it should be the next nation within the UK to gain devolved powers. I…

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This week’s Local By-Election Results

This week’s Local By-Election Results

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Skipton West on Craven (Lib Dem defence) Result: Labour 185 (24% +2%), Liberal Democrats 143 (19% -8%), Conservatives 131 (17% -9%), UKIP 126 (16%), Independent 120 (16% -2%), Green 67 (9%) Labour GAIN from Liberal Democrats with a majority of 42 (5%) on a swing of 5% from Lib Dem to Lab Skipton West on North Yorkshire (Lib Dem defence) Result: Independent 391 (23% -1%), Conservative 355 (21% +1%), Liberal Democrats 309 (19% -10%), UKIP 238 (14%), Green 194 (12%…

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