Cameron’s currently running just ahead of Kinnock
One of the great hopes for the Tories as they face GE2015 with a deficit in the voting intention polls is what happened at GE1992. Then it will be recalled John Major was returned with a majority even though all the polls pointed to a hung parliament.
At that election non-voting intention numbers like the leader satisfaction ratings were a better guide to the outcome. Could the same happen at GE2015?
What is pointed out, correctly in my view, is that from the point of his election as Tory leader in November 1990 to the April 1992 general election John Major had a substantial lead over Kinnock in leadership satisfaction ratings.
In the chart above I’ve excluded the first six months of Major’s MORI satisfaction ratings because he was enjoying a honeymoon and there was the first Gulf war. Even taking the period from June 1991 to the election Major’s lead remained and there was a substantial gap over Kinnock.
Compare that with the October 2013 to now averages for Dave and Ed from Ipsos-MORI. Cameronâ€™s on a much lower level and the lead is much smaller.
The difference between how Ed and Dave are rated could have an impact but on a much smaller scale than 22 years ago.