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Month: June 2014

Round-up of the latest numbers and charts from this exceptional political period

Round-up of the latest numbers and charts from this exceptional political period

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It’s ex-Tories over 65s that have driven the surge Interesting analysis from @IpsosMORI on the source of UKIP voters by previous allegiance & age. 18% ex-CON 65+ pic.twitter.com/foOc1Jfk8T — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 6, 2014 Eastleigh’s 27.8% still the best-ever UKIP Westminster performance Women voters: The big challenge facing Farage Attendees at this Farage/Helmer meeting last Saturday highlighted UKIP challenge. Very few women. pic.twitter.com/H6VaZb4OrR — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 6, 2014 Mike Smithson

Newark: A massive win for CON, a setback for UKIP and terrible outcome for LAB and the LDs

Newark: A massive win for CON, a setback for UKIP and terrible outcome for LAB and the LDs

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Newark by election result thread. http://t.co/wVsmlNHbGx pic.twitter.com/Tv3QFOwdeQ — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) June 6, 2014 The Tories will be relieved at the hold and 8.9% down on their General Election score, and better than was expected but an impressive increase for UKIP but still no win, given the momentum they had from the Euros, and polling less in percentage terms than they did in the Eastleigh by-election, there will be an element of disappointment for the Purples. For the Lib…

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Final Survation poll on Newark

Final Survation poll on Newark

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  I’d like to emphasise that this is NOT an exit poll, the fieldwork took place on Monday and Tuesday, the sample size was 678. Since Survation’s poll last week, Conservatives have gained 6 points and UKIP have dropped 1 point, whilst Labour has dropped 5 points from 27 to 22, which reflects the sheer level of effort put in by the Tories, and Labour getting squeezed in a two horse race. It could also be evidence of tactical voting by…

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Local By-Election Preview : June 5th 2014

Local By-Election Preview : June 5th 2014

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Clydesdale South on South Lanarkshire (SNP defence) Result of last election to council (2012): Labour 33, Scottish Nationalists 28, Conservatives 3, Independents 2, Liberal Democrat 1 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 1) Result of last election in ward (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected Scottish National Party 1,625, 313 (42%) Labour 1,149, 875 (44%) Conservatives 487 (10%) United Kingdom Independence Party 199 (4%) Candidates duly nominated: Donna Hood (Con), Donald MacKay (UKIP), Gordon Muir (Lab), George Sneddon (SNP), Ruth Thomas…

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The other battle of Newark: Survation versus Lord Ashcroft polls

The other battle of Newark: Survation versus Lord Ashcroft polls

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Ashcroft has CON 22% ahead of LAB: Survation make it 9% There’ve been two Newark by-election polls both of which were started towards the end of last week. The findings can be seen in the chart above. As can be seen the two surveys have pretty similar shares the UKIP – 28% with Survation and 27% with Lord Ashcroft. Where the two diverge is with the LAB and CON shares. Survation has the Tories on 36% while Lord Ashcroft has…

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May’s PB polling average: the Establishment decline continues

May’s PB polling average: the Establishment decline continues

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The EP14 effect – A big boost for the non-Westminster parties The pageantry of the Queen’s Speech and the political debate following it returns those following British politics back to a safe and familiar comfort zone: everything looks much as it always has.  It’s almost as if last month never happened. Yet happen it did and the polling average simply reinforces the message sent in ballot boxes up and down the country: the public continued to move away from the…

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Newark: The final day of campaigning in a battle so important to both CON and UKIP

Newark: The final day of campaigning in a battle so important to both CON and UKIP

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Watch Shadsy of Ladbrokes in this clip Not long to go now and the polling stations will be opening in Newark for a by-election that, whatever the outcome, will make history. Either the Tories break their terrible record of losing every by-election defence while in office over the past 25 years or UKIP break their ongoing losing sequence and actually win a seat. The only possible other outcome that could spoil this is Labour but from all accounts they have…

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Theresa May moves up 15 points and now clear leader in ConHome poll on next party leader

Theresa May moves up 15 points and now clear leader in ConHome poll on next party leader

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This is a big blow to Boris It’s hard to see why there’s been such movement in the ConHome regular survey of party members’ views on who should be Dave’s successor. Maybe the rise of UKIP is polarising views in many less connected segments. One thing that strikes me is that with all the focus on the May 22nd elections and their aftermath Boris hasn’t been making the headlines in the way that he was. Best price on Theresa is…

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