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Month: May 2014

The Tories still odds on to break the 25 year long series of failed by election defences while in government

The Tories still odds on to break the 25 year long series of failed by election defences while in government

The Tories still very strong favourite to hold Newark. Ukip now out to 5/1 pic.twitter.com/8cY37u9Vvs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2014 Will this survive the first poll? So far I have not had confirmation that a Newark poll is in the pipeline but it is hard to envisage such a key contest taking place without a survey. Maybe we’ll have to wait until after the May 22nd elections. Until then punters are flying blind. Will UKIP’s Roger Helmer split…

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The Populus monthly aggregates show LAB losing a seventh of its 2010 LD switchers over the past quarter

The Populus monthly aggregates show LAB losing a seventh of its 2010 LD switchers over the past quarter

The red team’s electoral crutch is getting shorter One of the best polling innovations this year has been the Populus monthly aggregates for the FT based on its twice weekly online polls. Whilst there can be greater variation in individual polls the aggregate helps us see the bigger picture and here, as the chart shows, the LAB shares have been edging downwards. Digging into the poll detail one of the reasons might be a lessening of the level of 2010…

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Lord Ashcroft teases us about his latest poll of the marginals. Can anyone decipher this?

Lord Ashcroft teases us about his latest poll of the marginals. Can anyone decipher this?

What a tease @LordAshcrof is. His exchange with @DPJHodges Does this mean new marginals poll is good or bad for EdM? pic.twitter.com/I7S8dtP3Z9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 7, 2014 Just to note that Telegraph blogger, Dan Hodges, is an ex-LAB staffer who has never knowingly written anything that is positive about the younger Miliband. My reading of the exchange is that there’s been little movement in the marginals – but maybe I’m wrong. We’ll know two weeks on Saturday. Mike…

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Labour showing that is doesn’t understand the current electoral dyanmic

Labour showing that is doesn’t understand the current electoral dyanmic

What Labour's petty attack ad, sorry PPB, tells me is they have no economic plan and nothing positive to say. Petty politics. — Tim Farron (@timfarron) May 7, 2014 On this @DPJHodges is right. LAB PPB is shallow & silly and could alienate LD switchers on which all party's GE2015 hopes are dependent on. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 7, 2014

UKIP Euro voters are more than twice as likely to say they’ll support party in general election compared with five years ago

UKIP Euro voters are more than twice as likely to say they’ll support party in general election compared with five years ago

The first data from the 20,000 sample British Election Study Exactly a year to go and this morning I’m off to London for the launch of the British Election Study – a huge academic exercise involving Manchester/Oxford/Nottingham universities which is monitoring and will produce regular reports on the coming general election. The chart above is from findings that have been released overnight as a sort of taster. They seek to answer the big unknown – the extent that UKIP support…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

Home of the web’s best political conversation If you’re going to be up, All Night Long, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, Hello,  why not delurk tonight, if you do delurk, I’m sure you’ll be Dancing on the Ceiling in excitement. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Labour set to lose out as young…

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The big number to look for in this month’s upcoming Lord Ashcroft polling of the marginals

The big number to look for in this month’s upcoming Lord Ashcroft polling of the marginals

An update on how the blue-red battle is doing where it matters, the marginals The big polling event of May 2014, exactly a year before general election, will be the publication by Lord Ashcroft of his latest mega sample polling of the marginals. This is due to be made available during the weekend immediately after the May 22nd local elections and immediately before the results of the Euro elections are announced. The former usually come on the Friday while with…

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