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Month: March 2014

On the eve of the budget a Survation poll restricted to those in employment has LAB lead of 17 percent

On the eve of the budget a Survation poll restricted to those in employment has LAB lead of 17 percent

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There’s a new Survation poll out this morning where the sample is restricted to those in employment either full-time or part-time. It was commissioned by Unions 21 but the target sample was all those working not just union members. There is nothing to compare this with in the past so it is hard to say whether there is a trend or not. Of those sampled 73% said they’d seen wages fall relative to the cost of living in last 2…

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Gove gets a rollocking from Dave over over comments about the influence of old-Etonians at the top of the Tory party

Gove gets a rollocking from Dave over over comments about the influence of old-Etonians at the top of the Tory party

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Gove's comments about Etonians at top of the Tory party. The head is not amused. See http://t.co/LfLHY4RqS8 pic.twitter.com/7nK9l06xmq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 17, 2014 The Speccie’s Isabel Hardman has the story. The only problems for Number 10 is that this keeps the story running and it gives the impression that there are splits at the top. Maybe, as was being suggested at the weekend, senior Tories have given up on GE2015 and the focus now is on who will succeed…

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Populus: LAB has 31 percent lead amongst public sector workers

Populus: LAB has 31 percent lead amongst public sector workers

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The above finding from today’s Popuus online poll is not surprsing particuarly as public sector worker have been facing many of the impacts of the coalition’s efforts to reduce the deficit. I’ve not been able to find comparative GE2010 data from Populus but without success. Ipsos-MORI, though, reported in April 2010 that public sector workers split CON 33/ LAB 22/ LD 37/ UKIP 2. This is not directly comparable with Populus but perhaps does provide a pointer. Mike Smithson 2004-2014:…

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On this day before Osborne’s 2012 Budget ICM had the Tories 3 points ahead, the last time any poll had a CON lead

On this day before Osborne’s 2012 Budget ICM had the Tories 3 points ahead, the last time any poll had a CON lead

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ICM Guardian poll March 2012 And in this March 2012 poll UKIP was on just 1% If it should be that the Conservatives are not in government after the next general election then a lot of the blame will be attributed to the March 2012 budget and the way the government reacted in the weeks and months that followed. Until that point in the electoral cycle, as the ICM poll for March 2012 illustrates, the Tories were doing quite well…

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Farage : “I want to fight a marginal” : The possible choices

Farage : “I want to fight a marginal” : The possible choices

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During today’s interview with Andrew Neil on the Sunday Politics, the issue of where Nigel Farage wants to stand at the next election cropped up again and for the first time he gave an answer “I want to fight a marginal” he declared. Now, there has been a lot of discussion in the past about what constitutes a marginal (with experts ranging in opinions from a 5% lead to a 20% lead), but my own personal thoughts are that a…

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The Tories close the gap by 1.4 percent in this week’s PB YouGov Weekly Average

The Tories close the gap by 1.4 percent in this week’s PB YouGov Weekly Average

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After a big week politically and some generally better ratings the Tories have closed the gap by 1.4% in the latest PB weekly average. We have been producing this weekly since the start of the year to help us better follow trends from the five times a weeky YouGov polls. This is a big move upwards which would have been greater if today’s poll for the Sunday Times had not had LAB back up at 40 with the Tories at…

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For the first time UKIP takes the lead in a poll for the May Euro elections

For the first time UKIP takes the lead in a poll for the May Euro elections

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This should shake up the betting markets Note that ComRes applied a different certainty to vote filter compared with normal Westminster polling. Only those certain to vote are included and my guess is that this is a major factor that has put UKIP at the top. As I write I haven’t seen the detail but my guess is that demographic groups likely to support UKIP are those who are most likely to turnout. Note. The change figures on the above…

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It’s bumper polling Saturday with at least 3 Westminster ones and one EP2014

It’s bumper polling Saturday with at least 3 Westminster ones and one EP2014

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One Saturday a month we seem to have a glut of polls with ComRes for the Indy on Sun/ S Mirror, Opinium for the Observer and the usual YouGov for the Sunday Times. On top of this ComRes, will be publishing an EP2014 survey, which is only the fourth such poll from any firm since the start of the year. Judging by polling activity you wouldn’t think that this election is only nine and a half weeks away. ComRes tell…

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