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Month: March 2014

UKIP is taking far more votes away from the Tories than any other party

UKIP is taking far more votes away from the Tories than any other party

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A bit of a narrative seems developing about the rise of UKIP which is said to hurting Labour more than the Tories. This is based on studies showing that white, working class men who finished their education at secondary school are being disproportionately attracted to Farage’s party. That might indeed be true but were these Labour supporters in the first place? The chart above, from the Populus/FT aggregate data for February, shows computations that I’ve and as can be seen…

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New PB analysis finds that LAB and UKIP have far more 2010 non-voters amongst current support than either the Tories or Lib Dems

New PB analysis finds that LAB and UKIP have far more 2010 non-voters amongst current support than either the Tories or Lib Dems

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This could have an impact on May 7th 2015 The big Populus/FT online aggregate data for February with an overall sample of 14,203, provides a mine of information presented in a form that makes possible a number of detailed analysis areas which you cannot do with conventional polling data. One I’ve been looking at overnight is the proportion of non-voters from last time amongst the current support bases. I went into this thinking that UKIP would have the most. In…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. To all your lurkers, All Around The World, why not delurk, Some Might Say, delurking is the best thing they’ve ever done. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) White face, blue collar, grey hair: the ‘left behind’ voters only Ukip understands. Farage’s core voters are not…

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So Farage against Clegg is going to be on TV – My prediction: Both will be the winner

So Farage against Clegg is going to be on TV – My prediction: Both will be the winner

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So the Farage – Clegg one to one is fixed for BBC 2 pic.twitter.com/7JJkHHcHPz — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 5, 2014 This should liven up the Euros It’s good news for all who want a high turnout in the May Euro elections that the Farage versus Clegg national TV debate is actually on. The BBC will be staging it on BBC 2. It will last an hour. For both leaders the mere fact that this is taking place is a…

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Crossover on the Betfair GE2015 outcome market: LAB majority edges back to favourite for first time since June

Crossover on the Betfair GE2015 outcome market: LAB majority edges back to favourite for first time since June

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Last trade on LAB majority on Betfair = 40% Chances of LAB majority edges to 40% on Betfair for first time since June 2013 pic.twitter.com/Ty5AFGW6b8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 5, 2014 Last trade on NO majority on Betfair = 39.3% No overall majority price on Betfair drops to 39.3% pic.twitter.com/Reo1fDv05f — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 5, 2014 Punters could be buying the “voteless recovery” narrative The charts are from Betfair’s mobile site which annoyingly don’t show dates. The price…

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The Conservative nightmare: We could be seeing a voteless recovery

The Conservative nightmare: We could be seeing a voteless recovery

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Tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the indy sees LAB lead up by 7% The one hope that has been consistent amongst both coalition partners during the past three and a half difficult years has been the political benefits that would accrue once the recovery was established and the electorate could see that it had all been worthwhile. Well over the past few months the economic news has been generally good. Growth is up while unemployment is down. Things start to…

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From data already public from latest ComRes phone poll it looks as though the LAB will get a boost

From data already public from latest ComRes phone poll it looks as though the LAB will get a boost

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The voting detail from latest ComRes phone poll that will be released tonight pic.twitter.com/jHNx9bg3Zk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 4, 2014 This looks like CON 29/LAB 37/LD 10/UKIP 11 Frustratingly the Indy is releasing its monthly ComRes phone poll in parts and we don’t have the voting intention numbers yet. Given the cost of carrying out phone polls this is understandable but we’d all love to see the actual numbers. What we do have is part of the data which…

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The pieces of the electoral pie that have got to get a lot smaller if Cameron is to have any chance of staying at Number 10

The pieces of the electoral pie that have got to get a lot smaller if Cameron is to have any chance of staying at Number 10

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2010 LD to LAB switching 2010 CON to UKIP switching Thanks to the new Populus monthly polling aggregate with a sample in February of 14,203 and the weekly averaging of the numbers in the five times a week YouGov polling we can get broader picture of the big dynamics in voting intentions since the 2010 general election. The pie charts above say it all. At the last general election the Lib Dem secured 24% of the overall GB vote while…

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