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Month: February 2014

How votes have been churning between the parties since 2010

How votes have been churning between the parties since 2010

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From the latest Ashcroft mega-poll We don’t often view polling data in this way partly because the sample sizes in the regular surveys are not really large enough to draw conclusions from sub-samples. Lord Ashcroft gets round this by using very large samples with the result that for poll watchers like me his detailed data can provide good insights and pointers. Clearly the top two, UKIP and LAB, have seen the most new support coming to them and are probably…

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation As we enter the Twilight Zone of Wednesday, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker looking to Delurk, Get Ready For This thread, it give you a chance to delurk, hopefully there’ll be No Limits to the number of lurkers delurking. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) A…

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Iain Dale predicts that the LDs will win 30-35 seats at GE2015. Seat by seat these are his forecasts.

Iain Dale predicts that the LDs will win 30-35 seats at GE2015. Seat by seat these are his forecasts.

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It is a brave man who fifteen months before a general election seeks to predict the outcome in all the 57 seats that the Lib Dems will be defending but that is what Ian Dale has done this morning. It provoked quite a discussion on Twitter and I thought that PBers might like to cast their eyes over it and give their verdicts. To my mind the element that Iain has not factored in is the organisational state of the local LD…

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An emerging trend? LAB voters are now more likely to say they are certain to vote

An emerging trend? LAB voters are now more likely to say they are certain to vote

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The trend over the past few years New analysis from @IpsosMORI shows CON voters now less certain to vote than LAB ones. http://t.co/WbBIclp73V Chart pic.twitter.com/wcbQPw6nTi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2014 How higher certainty levels boosted LAB in this poll Ipsos-MORI Jan 2014 Political Monitor pic.twitter.com/PYmcnHH54B — PolPics (@PolPics) February 5, 2014 There’s an interesting article by Ipsos-MORI’s Roger Mortimer on the way that LAB voters are increaingly saying that they are more certain to vote than CON ones. This…

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker,  why not delurk, it’s the Vogue, thing to delurk and Express Yourself, once you get, Into The Groove of posting, you’ll enjoy it. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Lynton Crosby gives Tories ‘lovely’ roasting as MPs demand govt EU referendum…

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At GE2010 the Tories had a lead amongst teachers. Now the Tories are 41 pc behind

At GE2010 the Tories had a lead amongst teachers. Now the Tories are 41 pc behind

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How LAB moved from a 1% deficit to a 41% lead Given the very public row that’s been going on over Mr Michael Gove I’ve dug out some comparative data on the voting intentions of teachers and the big changes in the way this key segment of the electorate will vote. In MARCH 2010 YouGov found teachers splitting CON 33: LAB 32: LD 27: UKIP 3. In the latest polling of the same segment published last month it is CON…

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Another poll finds the #IndyRef gap closing in Scotland but whoever the client was has so far sat on it

Another poll finds the #IndyRef gap closing in Scotland but whoever the client was has so far sat on it

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Mystery YouGov #indyref poll finds gap closing as well but so far hasn't been published http://t.co/In2xHlmZ7s pic.twitter.com/aNmDN7vpse — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2014   PB reveals the mystery YouGov referendum survey The big Scottish #IndyRef story over the past week had been the closing of the gap between those wanting independence and those opposed. First was the ICM poll for Scotland on Sunday which was followed by TNS BMRB. Now another poll has emerged which also shows the same…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker,  why not become the New Kids On The Block and delurk. I know, You Got It (The Right Stuff) to make excellent contributions to PB. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Ukip supporters really dislike posh Dave… but they can’t stand Ed…

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