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Month: January 2014

If this Ipsos-MORI polling is right then party leaders are becoming less important

If this Ipsos-MORI polling is right then party leaders are becoming less important

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Never have all been rated so badly There’s some interesting polling just been released by Ipsos-MORI on party leadership which has the not so remarkable conclusion that:- “The average combined satisfaction rating of the leaders of the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties is lower today than Ipsos MORI has ever seen in recent history, at an equivalent time before a general election. The average combined net satisfaction score (% satisfied minus % dissatisfied) of the three leaders in December…

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The polling differential in the marginals that would mean that we should be adding 5 to the LAB lead

The polling differential in the marginals that would mean that we should be adding 5 to the LAB lead

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Are the blues really doing so much worse in the battlegrounds? Back in September Lord Ashcrooft published his 12,083 sample phone polls showing that LAB was doing substantiality better in the key battlegrounds than in the country as a whole. The idea that something different was happening in the marginals was given greater credence last month when Survation, in its series of constituency polls for UKIP donor, Alan Bown, also had Labour doing better. The broad scale of the swing…

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. To you lurkers,  why not take the final few Steps to delurking? I’m sure your contributions won’t be Better Best Forgotten. It’ll be a Tragedy if 5,6.7,8 lurkers don’t delurk. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Some very interesting polling analysis by Ipsos-Mori finds that…

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If LAB find they need to go into coalition then it’s highly likely that they’ll have come 2nd on votes

If LAB find they need to go into coalition then it’s highly likely that they’ll have come 2nd on votes

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Electoral Calculus on CON 36/LAB 34/LD 12/UKIP 10 http://t.co/mTRqtqLs5N pic.twitter.com/pinH57OuDx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 14, 2014 How Ed can be the seat winner but vote loser Lots of talk at the moment about another hung parliament fueled partly by the hitherto unlikely “revelation” from Ed Balls that he’s respected all along the LD decision in May 2010 to go into coalition with the Tories. One thing that hasn’t been focused on is what sort of result would lead to…

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The January ICM poll sees LAB lead down to 3 and the LDs the main gainer

The January ICM poll sees LAB lead down to 3 and the LDs the main gainer

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Even though it’s only margin of error it will cheer the Tories The only real changes in tonight’s January ICM poll for the Guardian are LAB down 2 with the LDs up – both moves within the margin of error. After a poor polling start to the year the Tories will be pleased that ICM has such a close margin which will give them a boost. Exactly a year ago the first ICM of 2013 had CON 33/LAB 38/LD 15….

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The voting experience from GE2010 that perhaps explains why LAB is doing better in the marginals

The voting experience from GE2010 that perhaps explains why LAB is doing better in the marginals

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LAB voters more likely to turn out where it matters We’ve said it many times before but it is worth saying again. To maximise a party’s votes:seats ratio the best thing you can do is perform differently in different sorts of seats. Just look at the LAB vote GE2010 vote share changes in the chart above. There’s a variation of nearly 6% between the seats where it best performed compared with the worst. The categories are worked out by the…

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Introducing the PB weekly average of YouGov daily polls

Introducing the PB weekly average of YouGov daily polls

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The general election is sixteen months away and the polls are going to be increasingly important. The biggest in terms of volume of output is, of course, YouGov which carries out five surveys each week – four for the Sun and one for the Sunday Times. Sometimes these get reported at other times they don’t. I thought it quite a good idea to continue highlighting interesting single polls but also to record a weekly average so we’ll be a able…

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