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Month: December 2013

First full post Autumn poll from Populus online has LAB lead +4 – a different picture from YouGov

First full post Autumn poll from Populus online has LAB lead +4 – a different picture from YouGov

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Top phone pollster, ICM, due out tonight Yesterday I highlighted the Sunday Times YouGov poll – the first full voting intention survey since Osborn’s Autumn Statement on Thursday. That had the CON lead down to 5%. Today we’ve got the first Populus online poll and that, as the chart shows, has things moving in the opposite direction. Tonight I’m hoping for the first phone poll – ICM for the Guardian and later in the week we should have Ipsos-MORI. There’s…

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Farage says that in many seats at GE2015 only UKIP will be able to beat Labour

Farage says that in many seats at GE2015 only UKIP will be able to beat Labour

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pic.twitter.com/lFI1YuYqwM — PolPics (@PolPics) December 9, 2013 Dealing with the “Wasted vote” syndrome In the Independent this morning Nigel Farage seeks to deal with what will be a big negative for his party at GE2015 – the notion that a vote for UKIP is a wasted vote and could let Ed Miliband in. There’s little doubt that this perception is widespread and will be used strongly by the Tories in May 2015 to undermine the purples and seek to bring…

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If not Balls as Shadow Chancellor then who?

If not Balls as Shadow Chancellor then who?

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Sure sign of trouble is when betting starts on a replacement PaddyPower http://t.co/0KpwlJgy4T shadow chancellor odds pic.twitter.com/4oJgzmCFqo — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 8, 2013 PaddyPower is now taking bets on who’ll be shadow chancellor at GE2015 – a sure sign that Balls might be in a spot of bother. I’ve long held the view that it won’t be Ed Balls who, it’ll be recalled, wasn’t EdM’s first choice for the job when he became leader. Whatever the strengths of the incumbent…

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Tories move up 5pc in first full voting intention poll since the autumn statement

Tories move up 5pc in first full voting intention poll since the autumn statement

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Osborne has a YouGov lead of 10% as best chancellor. Just 55% of LAB voters backed Ed Balls — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 8, 2013 On Friday YouGov was showing a 12% lead from a poll where the fieldwork mostly took place before Osborne’s autumn statement. It was way out of line with previous polls and did look like an outlier. Today’s YouGov for the Sunday Times is in chart above and as we can see there are big changes….

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ConHome survey: Tory party members getting more gloomy about their prospects for GE 2015

ConHome survey: Tory party members getting more gloomy about their prospects for GE 2015

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Paul Goodman of ConHome reports today on the latest survey of how Conservative party members assess their chances for the next general election. The totals in the chart above aggregate those expecting a majority (now 20%), those expecting a CON minority government (19%) and those who think that there’ll be another coalition (16%). Interestingly the 20% CON majority segment is quite close to the latest trades on the Betfair GE2015 outcome market. The chart tracks very much the percieved impact…

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Osborne could have a branding problem that would make him an electoral liability

Osborne could have a branding problem that would make him an electoral liability

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pic.twitter.com/Wv1pnN50y8 — PolPics (@PolPics) December 7, 2013 Voters turn against when told that a plan has his backing Yesterday’s Ipsos-MORI poll on the Autumn Statement raises an issue that could be troublesome for the Tories as they head into the general election – a branding problem when George Osborne is involved. Back in March the firm asked people to choose between two statements about the best way to deal with Britain’s economic difficulties – either tackling the national debt or…

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Local By-Election Results : December 5th 2013

Local By-Election Results : December 5th 2013

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Riverside (Lab Defence) and Splott (Lab Defence) on Cardiff Riverside: Result: Lab 1,120 (50% +2%), Plaid 773 (35% +4%), Con 107 (5% -3%), UKIP 97 (4%), TUSC 70 (3% +2%), Lib Dem 58 (3% -1%) Labour HOLD on a swing of 1% from Labour to Plaid Splott: Result: Lab 706 (40% -14%), Lib Dem 604 (34% +4%), UKIP 209 (12%), Ind 94 (5%), Con 86 (5% unchanged), TUSC 80 (4% +3%) Labour HOLD on a swing of 9% from Labour…

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