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Month: December 2013

Unless the weekend polling produces a shock 2013 will be the first year since 2002 that the Tories didn’t record a lead in any opinion poll

Unless the weekend polling produces a shock 2013 will be the first year since 2002 that the Tories didn’t record a lead in any opinion poll

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The Tories have yet to record a lead in any opinion poll this year. The last year this happened was 2002. — Simon (@simonk133) December 19, 2013 I saw this Tweet earlier and thought I’d check it out. It is correct. At some point in every single year from 2003 to 2012 the Tories recorded at least one lead. On two occasions they’ve been level-pegging and this week they got within 2%. What this means electorally we’ll have to wait…

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The political party of 2013 – it has to be UKIP

The political party of 2013 – it has to be UKIP

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But winning seats matters more than votes In the final local by-elections of the year last night UKIP once again chalked up some impressive vote shares and came within 3 of taking a ward off the Tories in West Sussex – but when it came to seats they continue to struggle. The life-off moment for the party which seriously changed perceptions was on February 28th, the Eastleigh parliamentary by-election following Chris Huhne’s conviction and imprisonment. Starting out in fourth place…

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Local By-Election Preview: December 19th 2013

Local By-Election Preview: December 19th 2013

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Harper Green on Bolton (Lab Defence) Result of last election (2012): Lab 41, Con 16, Lib Dem 3 (Labour overall majority of 22) Result in ward over last electoral cycle: 2010: Lab 2,302 (45%), Lib Dem 1,203 (23%), Con 903 (18%), Ind 625 (12%), Green 114 (2%) 2011: Lab 1,918 (67%), Con 616 (22%), Lib Dem 326 (11%) 2012: Lab 1,656 (73%), Con 389 (17%), Lib Dem 222 (10%) Candidates duly nominated: Asha Ali Ismail (Lab), Wendy Connor (Lib Dem),…

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As concerns about the economy subside immigration could soon be biggest in the Ipsos-MORI Issues Index

As concerns about the economy subside immigration could soon be biggest in the Ipsos-MORI Issues Index

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@IpsosMORI Issues Index has been carried out in same way for 37 yrs and because it's unprompted is widely regarded as best test of salience — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 19, 2013 Main findings in December Ipsos-MORI Issues Index in which people state their concerns unprompted – what's salient pic.twitter.com/Gk2CL6no2T — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 19, 2013 As concerns about the economy subside immigration could soon be biggest issue See Ipsos-MORI December Issues index pic.twitter.com/utB3KKugw7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December…

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Just 2 more YouGov daily polls this year and those who bet on a 2013 cross-over look set to be disappointed

Just 2 more YouGov daily polls this year and those who bet on a 2013 cross-over look set to be disappointed

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CON doing better than 2012 In the summer PaddyPower attracted a lot of betting interest with a new market on whether the Tories would over-take Labour in at least one poll before the end of the year. With the pollster packing up for the holidays at the weekend there are just two surveys left to go and unless there is something dramatic it looks as though those who bet at prices tighter than evens are going to have to say…

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Survation defends its methodology against Lord Ashcroft, John Rentoul and YouGov’s Anthony Wells

Survation defends its methodology against Lord Ashcroft, John Rentoul and YouGov’s Anthony Wells

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Following publication of our latest four constituency polls for Alan Bown earlier this week, there has been considerable public discussion of the methodology we used for these polls, including specific criticisms from Anthony Wells of YouGov, Lord Ashcroft and an article by John Rentoul which lists a number of criticisms passed to him by “a Conservative source”. I would like to use this opportunity to address these criticisms and provide a robust explanation for our choices of methodology. In his…

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Take the 33-1 that UKIP will win Cambourne and Redruth

Take the 33-1 that UKIP will win Cambourne and Redruth

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PaddyPower has put up some more GE2015 single constituency markets including the Cornish seats of Cambourne Redruth which the Tories took off the Lib Dems in 2010. The latest prices are CON 2/5: LD 5/2: LAB 8/1 and UKIP 33/1 As highlighted by Stuart Dickson and others on a previous threads the UKIP option is a good value bet. When it went up it was priced at 40/1 – odds that quickly moved in. What makes this seat particularly interesting…

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Time to make some money from the CON majority fantasists

Time to make some money from the CON majority fantasists

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Punters on the Betfair exchange now giving the Tories a 23.8% chance of an overall majority. See trend chart pic.twitter.com/MJoqFqQf7r — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 18, 2013 The Betfair 23.8% chance is a ludicrous over-assessment The latest trade in Betfair’s GE2015 outcome market has a CON majority rated as 23.8% chance. There must be a lot of blue supporters out there betting with their hearts not their heads – always a good opportunity for smart political punters. Let’s get this…

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