Just to note that tomorrow there will not be the usual PB Christmas Day cross-word from StJohn. For various reasons he’s not been able to do one this year. If anybody has any other ideas for tomorrow on the site then let me know or just post below. I’m at home with my wife Jacky, my daughters, son-in-law, and two of my grandchildren. I don’t intend to post very much. Regard this as an open thread and have an enjoyable…
How the Populus party ID weightings worked against #UKIP in today's Populus poll When the views of 208 became 21 pic.twitter.com/yxpoNWhQlf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 20, 2013 Using a 2010 model might not be right for 2014 The publication last week of the latest round of the Bown-funded constituency polling set off a debate about methodology with efforts to attack what Survation had done. The main objections were that the firm wasn’t using what have become standard approaches to ensure…
Money piles on independent Danny Supple in the Hills win w/o top 4 market. In from 14/1 to 4/1 following Survation. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 24, 2013 Making money reading the poll detail My definition of a great bet is one where my reading is that the outcome is a near certainty and the odds are longer than evens. This doesn’t happen often but in the weekend before the Eastleigh by election in February such an opportunity opened…
Tim Montgomerie got this right: A humourous response was required Soubry v Farage shaping up as most entertaining political feud de nos jours. UKIP overreaction to #fingergate makes it funnier still — James Chapman (Mail) (@jameschappers) December 22, 2013 @jameschappers he should have responded with humour, not anger — Tim Montgomerie (@TimMontgomerie) December 22, 2013 Of course, Anna Soubry’s comments on the Marr about Nigel Farage show were wrong but the interesting thing, as is being noted in the Tweets…
This could mean something or it could mean nothing but the December CONHome survey of party members sees a change at the top as preferred next party leader. This is the first time that the state school educated Home Secretary has been in this position in the site’s monthly survey of members. This might take on increasing importance over the next 18 months – for we could be less than a year away from the next contest. In recent times…
PaddyPower http://t.co/0KpwlJgy4T constituency odds have Respect losing Bradford W and the Greens Brighton Pavilion pic.twitter.com/QziJonTcDd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 21, 2013 @MSmithsonPB Greens immensely unpopular here – citywide poll had Labour with a 17% lead, Greens lost a by election in Pavilion on 11% swing — Cllr Warren Morgan (@warrenmorgan) December 21, 2013 Over the holiday period I’m planning to look at some of the constituency betting markets that we have up. There are now quite a few of…
This might be their one and only big chance but how to maximise it? This parliament has been about as kind as possible to UKIP. The Conservatives and Lib Dems are both having to make unpopular decisions in government (and opting to make other unpopular ones to boot), while coalition pulls each party from its core vote. Labour has not fully recovered from its own time in office. None of the three leaders is well regarded. That provides a massive…
Harper Green on Bolton (Lab Defence) Result: Lab 744 (51% -22% on 2012), Con 325 (23% +6% on 2012), UKIP 252 (18%), Green 60 (4%), Lib Dem 53 (4% -6%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 419 (28%) on a swing of 14% from Labour to Conservative since 2012 Elm and Christchurch on Fenland (Con Defence) Result: Con 301 (44%), UKIP 234 (34%), Ind 73 (11%), Lab 51 (7%), Lib Dem 27 (4%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 67…