Browsed by
Month: October 2013

The CON plan for a majority is said to be based on the LAB share being restricted to 31 pc. Who are they kidding?

The CON plan for a majority is said to be based on the LAB share being restricted to 31 pc. Who are they kidding?

Comments 0 Comment

This is from James Forsyth in the Spectator:- “…It is currently hard to see how either of the main parties can secure 40 per cent or more of the vote at the next general election. Indeed, there are senior figures inside Downing Street who believe that the Tories can’t realistically hope to garner this share of the vote in 2015. Instead, they argue that their most likely route to victory is to poll around 38 per cent themselves, keep the…

Read More Read More

I’m starting to think that UKIP could surprise us at GE2015

I’m starting to think that UKIP could surprise us at GE2015

Comments 0 Comment

Even out of the spotlight their polling remains resilient Over the past month UKIP has been out of the news for all but about two days yet as the chart above shows this has hardly impacted on its YouGov poll numbers. All but one of the other online pollsters have them doing even better even though only one of them, Survation, includes the party in its main prompt. To signify UKIP with YouGov, for instance, you have to first tick…

Read More Read More

PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

Comments 0 Comment

Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. By the way, if you’re a lurker, this is The Call from me urging to delurk, hopefully some of you lurkers will Get Down to posting, I’m expecting more than The One lurker delurks. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Conservatives are winning on welfare…

Read More Read More

Miliband’s energy price freeze might or might not be good economics – but it’s certainly good politics

Miliband’s energy price freeze might or might not be good economics – but it’s certainly good politics

Comments 0 Comment

The energy price issue is going to run. Cameron needs a more thought-out response pic.twitter.com/EeLkrZbjWO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 9, 2013 Ed Miliband exposes Tory confusion over whether to attack "Marxist" energy price controls, ape them or simply call them a gimmick #pmqs — Nick Robinson (@bbcnickrobinson) October 9, 2013 My PMQs verdict – http://t.co/8X72exW9yp – They weren't talking about Cameron's party conference speech … — AndrewSparrow (@AndrewSparrow) October 9, 2013 Cameron needs a much better response than we…

Read More Read More

If the GE2015 outcome was as the current betting suggests then LAB would not do a deal with the LDs

If the GE2015 outcome was as the current betting suggests then LAB would not do a deal with the LDs

Comments 0 Comment

Ladbrokes http://t.co/5ytVwnI62K GE2015 line market makes it evens that LAB will win 308 MPs or more 325+ for maj pic.twitter.com/kBxFUuMAXU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 9, 2013 If they are only 17 short the Two Eds will try to go it alone Unlike all previous general elections over the past 20 years there are no spread betting prices which give a really good pointer to current betting sentiment. The great and brilliant Spreadfair spread market closed its doors just five years…

Read More Read More

How adding the words “and jobs” to the best party on the economy question gives a very different outcome

How adding the words “and jobs” to the best party on the economy question gives a very different outcome

Comments 0 Comment

Today we saw the YouGov “best party” ratings on seven key policy areas. The economy one saw the CON lead increasing to 12%. Last month we had Ipsos-MORI asking broadly the same question with findings that were not too different from YouGov. The odd one out here is the Ashcroft marginal seats polling also published last month. Here the question was slightly different because the words “AND JOBS” were added to the best party on the economy question. No doubt…

Read More Read More

Cabinet next exit betting – a nice little earner for the bookies

Cabinet next exit betting – a nice little earner for the bookies

Comments 0 Comment

What the market looked like in mid-June Next cabinet exit betting The bookies clean up yet again Here are Ladbrokes prices from June 17th Michael Moore 25/1 pic.twitter.com/nRpxtqnlBe — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 8, 2013 Yesterday was a big day in political betting when something happened that we see so rarely – a market came to fruition and those who got it right can look forward to their winnings. 2013 has been a pretty poor year for those who like to bet…

Read More Read More