How the public responded in poll just after Crick’s report Who the public thought was telling lies on Plebgate from Dec 2012 See table pic.twitter.com/RWH8PUeCKI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 16, 2013
LAB YouGov/Sun daily poll lead back up to 5%. It was 1% yesterday LAB+1, 39% CON-3, 34% UKIP+1,11% LD-1, 9%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 15, 2013 After yesterday’s YouGov daily poll which saw the Tories at their highest level since the March 2012 budget things are back to “normal” this morning. Looking at the detailed data today’s poll shows a more balanced sample with less need to scale up those demographic segments which varied from the target. Generally outliers are more likely…
Ladbrokes Deputy Speaker 11/8 Laing 3/1 Streeter 4/1 Bellingham 5/1 Burns 8/1 Binley 20/1 Amess 33/1 Dorries pic.twitter.com/XvR30Ci4Zy — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 15, 2013 I can’t get excited about the election of the new deputy speaker to replace Nigel Evans. Usually I like to bet based on some knowledge and detailed analysis. On this one, frankly, I don’t know. The favourite is Eleanor Laing who I met when she chaired a session I was speaking at at the CON conference in October 2009. I liked…
Chart showing trend in TNS-BMRB polls this year pic.twitter.com/tWzf0RHUTf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 15, 2013 Another poll has CON getting close to LAB Latest figures from TNS-BMRB CON 34% (+5) LAB 36% (-3), LD 9% (0) UKIP 13% (-1), — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 15, 2013 The firm carried out the survey of 1,207 people between the 10th and 14th October 2013. The interviews were conducted using the pollster’s unique online self-completion which combines face to face with online questioning. Generally the firm’s…
A narrowing lead or normal variation within margin of error? The Tory share of 37% is the best for the party since March 16 2012 a few days before the budget which seemed set off the decline. Four weeks ago YouGov had the two parties level-pegging. Ten days later LAB had an 11% lead. 37% is also what the party secured at GE2010 which in view of the austerity measures is quite remarkable. As yet I have not seen the…
Just 27% tell ICM that believe "press should get on with regulating itself 64% say there should be to independent, external regulation — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 14, 2013 ICM backing for Miliband energy cap 30% say right to let "the market decide" 61% favoured capping — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 14, 2013 Thumbs down to Royal Mail pribatisation from ICM sample 63% said privatisation a bad thing leading higher prices and cut 29% say good thing — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 14, 2013
The impact of different polling methodologies Both Populus and Survation operate in a very similar manner. Both do their fieldwork online, both weight for likely turnout, and both apply a formula to ensure that their samples are politically balanced. Survation uses past voting weighting comparing what respondents said they did at GE2015 and with the actual result. Populus asks “which political party would you say you have usually most closely identified yourself with?” and compares back to the 2010 Social…
The other big battle of GE2015 There are two groups voters who will decide GE2015 – those who voted Lib Dem in 2010 who now say they are voting LAB, and those who voted for Cameron’s Conservatives who now tell pollsters that they will vote UKIP. We have focused a fair bit on the former but less so on the latter. The big blue hope is that that when faced with the prospect of a Miliband-led LAB government they will…