GE2015 projections based on swing-back to the incumbent government are irrelevant: The incumbent government isn’t standing
Final week campaign poster – May 2010
All parties will be campaigning for change
In recent weeks there have been a number of GE2015 projections all based on one common idea – that incumbents governments recover in the final period leading up to polling day.
Certainly that happened in 1992, 1997, 2001 and 2010, but we didn’t see that effect in 2005.
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Looking forward to May 2015 one big ingredient is missing – there is no incumbent government to be swung back to.
Instead all the parties will be campaigning on a change platform. The Tories will be trying to make the case to stay in government without being constrained by a coalition. The LDs will seek to highlight the areas of policy where they say they made a difference and how they would operate in the fiture
General Elections are almost always a clash between two big competing propositions – “it’s time for change” versus “don’t take the risk of doing something differently“. This time only the former is applicable.
There’s another factor as well – the fixed term parliament act. Knowing the election data has had an extraordinary impact on our politics. All parties have been able to plan on the basis of a long game.