What the market looked like in mid-June

Next cabinet exit betting The bookies clean up yet again Here are Ladbrokes prices from June 17th Michael Moore 25/1 pic.twitter.com/nRpxtqnlBe

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 8, 2013

Yesterday was a big day in political betting when something happened that we see so rarely – a market came to fruition and those who got it right can look forward to their winnings.

2013 has been a pretty poor year for those who like to bet on politics.The only major UK event was the Eastleigh by-election back in February. There were a couple of light markets linked to the May 2nd locals but that’s about it.

Trying to run a blog about political betting can be challenging when there is so little to bet on where you can see an outcome in a matter of days or weeks – not months or years.

There’s one regular that is there all the time and can see a resolution at almost any time – who’ll be the next cabinet exit? The screen shot above shows the prices from June 17th when all the pundits were suggesting a reshuffle in mid-July.

What strikes me is how wrong punters were then when the money was going on Justine Greening, Maris Miller and, of course, Vince Cable who has been high up the list ever since the coalition was created.

The only cabinet casualty yesterday, of course, was the Lib Dem Scottish Secretary, Michael Moore. In June he was one of the long-shots at 25/1. Even at the weekend you could have got him for 20/1.

I bet £20 on him in June solely on the basis of the desire of the LDs to have a woman cabinet member. The most likely candidate then, it seemed, was Jo Swinson and Moore’s job seemed ideal. As it turned out she’ll be on maternity leave in a few months.

Mike Smithson

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