In the last 24 hours or so, a couple of polls have been released on the Scottish Independence Referendum, one with a large lead for the no side, and one with a lead for the yes side, so how to make sense of this,

First up was a YouGov poll for Devo Plus.

Indy Ref polling YouGov/Devo Plus Yes to Independence 29 (nc) No to Independence 59 (+4) Changes since last YouGov poll in October 2012

— TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) September 2, 2013

 

In this instance, YouGov have continued their habit of adding ennui inducing and pejorative preamble to their question on Independence, which may distort the final result.

The question was

“If there was a referendum tomorrow on Scotland leaving the United Kingdom and becoming an Independent Country and this was the question, how would you vote? Should Scotland be an independent country.”

As Professor John Curtice notes

 ‘Scotland leaving the United Kingdom and being an independent country’ a description that might have been thought capable of discouraging some respondents from saying Yes.”

Now if you’re a supporter of Scottish Independence, the most interesting poll, a Panelbase commissioned by the SNP, as it shows the Yes side with its first lead since August 2011. Generally Panelbase have shown the smallest leads for the no side recently, so if one pollster was going to show a yes lead, I’d have expected it to be Panelbase.

Indy Ref polling Panelbase/SNP Yes to Independence 44 (+7) No to Independence 43 (-3) Changes since July 2013 PBase/STimes Poll

— TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) September 2, 2013

As we can see this is a big change since the last Panelbase poll, what appears to have behind this larger than MOE swing?

Professor Curtice notes with this poll

In Panelbase’s Sunday Times polls how people propose to vote in the referendum has followed questions on how they would vote in a Scottish Parliament election. That was not the case in the SNP poll.  Rather, it followed two questions that might well have helped cue some people into saying Yes that would not otherwise have done so.

With this month seeing the year to go anniversary of the actual referendum, hopefully we should see some more polling on this topic, including Ipsos-Mori’s Scotland political monitor.

What these two polls do show is that with the right messaging and campaigning in the referendum campaign proper starting next summer, enough voters can be swayed, with the right words and message, which should encourage both sides.

Update – I’ve added a clip from Yes, Prime Minister on how polls can be influenced by previous questions

 

TSE