With a little over 389 days to go until Scottish voters decide whether to leave the Union or not.

The table below shows the turnout in Scotland for a variety of elections and plebiscites, going back to 1974.

Year	Westminster election	Referendum	Holyrood election
1974 F	79.0
1974 O	74.8
1979 March		63.8
1979 May	76.8
1983	72.7
1987	75.1
1992	75.5
1997 May	71.3
1997 Sep		60.4
1999			59.1
2001	58.2
2003			49.4
2005	60.6
2007			52.1
2010	63.8
2011		50.7
2011			50.0

 

As we can see turnout in elections and plebiscites where the vote is purely Scotland only, the turnout appears to be lower than turnout than when Scotland partakes in UK wide elections. So if history repeats itself, the turnout in the Independence referendum will be less than the 63.8% turnout in the 2010 General Election.

That said, given the epochal nature of the upcoming referendum, I can see the arguments for turnout being higher than the 2010 General election turnout. That said, with the franchise being extended to 16 and 17 year olds, I can see the overall turnout being pushed lower, as younger votes have a tendency not to vote in elections.

Paddy Power and Betfair have markets up on the turnout in the Indy ref.

Paddy Power's Scottish Indy ref turnout market. pic.twitter.com/ypzkR5i1y7

— TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) August 24, 2013

Betfair's Scottish Indy ref turnout market. pic.twitter.com/QGvHC7MYnB

— TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) August 24, 2013

 

I think the value lies with Paddy Power’s two ranges below 64% and laying the higher turnout percentages over at Betfair, but I can see why other posters may wish to pursue alternative strategies.

• Many thanks to Dr Spyn and John Loony for providing me and helping to locate the figures for some of the turnout figures.

 

TSE